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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: VLAD who wrote (18095)1/24/1999 5:49:00 PM
From: Greg22  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 23519
 
Muse is a good treatment but...

The reason I will continue to hold this stock, and accumulate, is not because of a few cents of earnings, but rather the R&D coming down the pipe. Yes, Alibra will improve upon Muse, but the gene therapy approach will be revolutionary. Gene therapy has the potential to capture a large portion of Viagra market share down the road.

I would like to hear more about progress in gene therapy during
CC. In my opinion,this would be the major reason for anyone new to this stock to buy it (not to mention it is also undervalued).

IMO, whether Vivus makes .05,.25, or 1.25 does not compare to the potential revenues from gene therapy...Just IMO.



To: VLAD who wrote (18095)1/24/1999 6:27:00 PM
From: DaiS  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23519
 
Vlad,

>>Not the case for MUSE and I am sure that Astra/Zeneca will take full advantage of this situation withing the next month or two.>>

Not quite sure what you mean by this. The restrictions on viagra in the UK will apply to muse, caverject etc as in the Department of Health letter
coi.gov.uk
at this site posted by MK.

"I propose that it should be possible
to restrict the prescribing by GPs of treatments for impotence on the NHS, and that Schedule 11 of the GMS Regulations should be extended to restrict the prescribing of Viagra and other existing drug treatments for impotence, namely Caverject, Erecnos, MUSE, Viridal, and other preparations including papaverine, thymoxamine,
yohimbine and phentolamine, to patients with impotence who have undergone prostatectomy or radical pelvic surgery or suffer from spinal cord injury, diabetes, multiple sclerosis or single gene neurological disease. I propose that treatment may be available on the NHS in a hospital setting subject to specialist assessment in those exceptional circumstances where impotence is causing severe distress. I also propose to issue guidance that doctors should normally restrict their prescribing of treatment for impotence to one treatment per week."

Dobson does not want to spend more than £10-15M per annum on NHS ED treatment. If Astra are taking £0.5M per month, this gives £6M per annum a big chunk of this already. Of course I do not know how much of this revenue is from NHS and how much private.

I find it difficult to guess what will be the consequences for muse NHS revenue. On the basis of what has happened in the US we might expect in 'muse vs viagra' battle for muse to get 40% of the pie and this is £6M in £15M. I see some positives for muse. Viagra is less effective in the more serious case and this should have a benefical impact on doctors' perception of the relative efficacy of muse. There is quite a big viagra placebo effect in the more serious cases (30-40% reporting improvement as against 60-75% in treatment group). If placebo effects do wear off, combined with requirement for increasing quantities of sildenafil this again should benefit muse. I guess that those patients not eligible on NHS that can afford will go private. £5 versus £10 a shot. I'm not convinced the price differences can be a critical factor for a man that needs muse rather than viagra. £1 per day for sex at least once a fortnight is not that much, a pint of beer is £2. Also we do not know how many viagra tablets are wasted by men taking them only to find that things do not pan out as they had hoped.

DaiS