To: IceShark who wrote (36388 ) 1/24/1999 7:49:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
The Internet Capitalist SG Cowen Internet Research 14 steadfast in the fast of the Beltway's own infectious modus operandi. DoubleClick DoubleClick reported a strong quarter last week, beating our top line estimate by more than $5 million and besting our EPS number by $0.02 on strength throughout the business. Revenue of $29 million grew 40% sequentially in Q4, well ahead of our $23 million estimate amid both strong DART-related revenue ($4.9mm up 48% sequentially and a higher margin business) and continued momentum in DoubleClick network revenue ($24mm, up 39% sequentially). Total page views grew to 172 million per day in December, up 59% sequentially, with the bulk of that growth coming from DART ad serving rather than organic growth of DoubleClick's network business. Alta Vista accounted for $12.9 million (44%) of DoubleClick's total revenue (compared to 44% in Q3), a figure that (post the AV deal) should remain in the mid 40% range. …Whose Upside Remains A Function Of Top-Line Surprises. Though gross margins increased 50 basis points sequentially (about what we had been expecting), most of the cost lines were about as expected; the real out performance on the operating margin side (our model was predicting a -22% operating margin versus the -18% they reported) was a function of revenue. Given management's insistence that investment, not profits, are key to deriving the greatest economic value from their opportunity, they remain in investment mode; expect S&M and R&D to have nice increases as DCLK continues to expand internationally and as the Closed Loop products/services roll-out (it should be out of beta in Q1). The Resolution Of The Alta Vista Deal Is The Real News… DoubleClick finally resolved the omnipresent issue of what would happen to 44% of their revenue (those revenues attributed to selling Alta Vista inventory); Alta Vista (AV) re-signed to 3 year, non-cancelable deal for both advertising sales as well as the continued use of DART as the ad serving technology on the AV Web site. The important point here is that the deal is non-cancelable by either party over that 3 year time. Of course, that is both a pro and a con, depending on what happens to the AV property over time. For our part, we're happy to take a glass half full approach to thinking about what Compaq will do with their #10 (by reach) Web site. Can Compaq Turn Alta Vista Into A Real Portal Contender?… DoubleClick management insists that Compaq isn't interested in owning a #10 portal and wants to grow the property into a formidable competitor to Yahoo!, MSN, and AOL. Prima facie, this statement seems supported by Compaq's recent actions on this front (the purchase of Shopping.com) and the tacit implication that Compaq has some more announcements/deals up their sleeve. That said, we're withholding final judgment on whether AV can become one of the leading portals (and thus determine what positive impact that reality could have on DCLK) until we get a better sense of if Compaq can turn their missives into reach and usage. After all, it's only getting harder to attract consumers and build a brand these days and if the likes of a Disney isn't assured success, we're hard pressed to see it as anything but a real challenge ahead for Compaq. …Who Cares? DoubleClick's Business Is Humming In Its Own Right. DCLK's Network business continues to strengthen; 48 million unique users (up from 44 million in Q3), 1,320 sites from 340 publishers, up from 930 sites from 270 publishers (up 42% and 26% Q/Q