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To: IceShark who wrote (36388)1/24/1999 5:47:00 PM
From: Robert Leverton  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
I've have noticed the opposite. Barron's readers are weekend investors and follow blindly anything they recommend, Internets and Airborne Express being the most recent. The readers also sell on the articles. This week was a sell off of the internets (despite the sucker rally Friday). Last weekends major article was a panel of experts predicting the future. The experts disagreed on EVERYTHING except the Internets (primarily e-commerce) were way over valued.

Every week I have to fight to find a Barron's for sale (I love to see the market react to their articles). They sell out every weekend within a 10 mile area of my home. In fact, this week I was unable to find a Barron's ANYWHERE. I guess buying one day after they come out is to late.

What was the negative article about Amazon? Was it a prime article or hidden away? I hope it was negative.

Anyway, all I need do is watch the open and I have my answer, the weekend investors follow their investing bible to the letter.

Cheers,
Bob



To: IceShark who wrote (36388)1/24/1999 7:49:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Respond to of 164684
 
The Internet Capitalist
SG Cowen Internet Research
14
steadfast in the fast of the Beltway's own
infectious modus operandi.
DoubleClick
DoubleClick reported a strong quarter last
week, beating our top line estimate by more
than $5 million and besting our EPS number
by $0.02 on strength throughout the business.
Revenue of $29 million grew 40% sequentially
in Q4, well ahead of our $23 million estimate
amid both strong DART-related revenue
($4.9mm up 48% sequentially and a higher
margin business) and continued momentum in
DoubleClick network revenue ($24mm, up
39% sequentially).
Total page views grew to 172 million per day
in December, up 59% sequentially, with the
bulk of that growth coming from DART ad
serving rather than organic growth of
DoubleClick's network business. Alta Vista
accounted for $12.9 million (44%) of
DoubleClick's total revenue (compared to 44%
in Q3), a figure that (post the AV deal) should
remain in the mid 40% range.
…Whose Upside Remains A Function Of Top-Line
Surprises.
Though gross margins increased 50 basis
points sequentially (about what we had been
expecting), most of the cost lines were about
as expected; the real out performance on the
operating margin side (our model was
predicting a -22% operating margin versus the
-18% they reported) was a function of revenue.
Given management's insistence that
investment, not profits, are key to deriving the
greatest economic value from their
opportunity, they remain in investment mode;
expect S&M and R&D to have nice increases
as DCLK continues to expand internationally
and as the Closed Loop products/services roll-out
(it should be out of beta in Q1).
The Resolution Of The Alta Vista Deal Is The
Real News…
DoubleClick finally resolved the omnipresent
issue of what would happen to 44% of their
revenue (those revenues attributed to selling
Alta Vista inventory); Alta Vista (AV) re-signed
to 3 year, non-cancelable deal for both
advertising sales as well as the continued use
of DART as the ad serving technology on the
AV Web site. The important point here is that
the deal is non-cancelable by either party over
that 3 year time. Of course, that is both a pro
and a con, depending on what happens to the
AV property over time. For our part, we're
happy to take a glass half full approach to
thinking about what Compaq will do with
their #10 (by reach) Web site.
Can Compaq Turn Alta Vista Into A Real Portal
Contender?…
DoubleClick management insists that Compaq
isn't interested in owning a #10 portal and
wants to grow the property into a formidable
competitor to Yahoo!, MSN, and AOL. Prima
facie, this statement seems supported by
Compaq's recent actions on this front (the
purchase of Shopping.com) and the tacit
implication that Compaq has some more
announcements/deals up their sleeve. That
said, we're withholding final judgment on
whether AV can become one of the leading
portals (and thus determine what positive
impact that reality could have on DCLK) until
we get a better sense of if Compaq can turn
their missives into reach and usage. After all,
it's only getting harder to attract consumers
and build a brand these days and if the likes of
a Disney isn't assured success, we're hard
pressed to see it as anything but a real
challenge ahead for Compaq.
…Who Cares? DoubleClick's Business Is
Humming In Its Own Right.
DCLK's Network business continues to
strengthen; 48 million unique users (up from
44 million in Q3), 1,320 sites from 340
publishers, up from 930 sites from 270
publishers (up 42% and 26% Q/Q



To: IceShark who wrote (36388)1/24/1999 10:29:00 PM
From: Timoteo  Respond to of 164684
 
Barron's comments on AMZN- Barron's did a similar piece on another momentum highflyer, ZITL in the Winter of 1996. It went up dramatically for several days, if I recall correctly, and tumbled down even more dramatically afterwards. In 1996 Y2K was like the internet. For anyone reading who doesn't know the ZITL story, look at a 3 year chart- its pretty amazing!

Best,

Timoteo