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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Pueblo who wrote (844)	1/24/1999 9:23:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Chicken, Greenspam is famous for making turning points and so is GANN: Message 7326427 Greenspan talked before Congress at the 7/20 top and the FOMC meeting was near the top in late September before the crash into 10/8 Neither of those talks caused a correction of 40% in net stocks in 8 trading days. The real reasons are completely supply/demand related. Just as Abelson submitted in his column. When things get to extremes they must reverse. They said that the crash of 87 was because of program trading or rates going up. Baloney, it was because the market got so overbought that all the buyers were in and nobody was left to sell to. A vacuum of liquidity - a short term out of balance condition caused by "irrational speculation" I believe we are in a similar situation with the market right now, especially the tech stocks. The lagging a/d line is representing this market as an illiquid market (fooling most that believe it is) This market does not have enough money to fuel a broad advance only a narrow advance of a few high flyers. We can't even keep the bond market up, as it see saws up and down opposite of equities. The bond charts dramatic rise into 10/8 was a panic buying flight to quality of world-wide capital. All the buyers rushed in during a short period of time. I believe this is another liquidity problem that at some point will reverse. bb

To: Don Pueblo who wrote (844)	1/24/1999 9:54:00 PM
From: eWhartHog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

What a way to end the contest! A "Greenspan" search of the thread shows Cheeky Kid predicted Greenspan comments would cause the selloff. This was in post 4 -- the first post on this thread that didn't deal with the rules. But it's not a numbered submission! #reply-6920144

To: Don Pueblo who wrote (844)	1/24/1999 10:14:00 PM
From: ayahuasca	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

So did these five guys correct 40%? If so, may I submit the post I intially made on Jan 11th for consideration. Thanks> To: Tastes Like Chicken (595 ) From: ayahuasca Tuesday, Jan 12 1999 9:14AM ET Reply # of 849 #1 This is a repost from last night. I needed to add the '#1' for it to count. I'll give this a shot. I dont know if my reasoning has been used yet, as I have not read all the posts,but here goes. First, I think the internet represents a cultural paradigm shift and the companies leading the way will continue to be valued (although somewhat more narrowly) in ways we have never seen before. In my opinion, justifiably so. With that said here is my first guess for a correction of 40% or more in the internets over a five day period (that might be a bit steep but we'll have to see): Start date, Monday January 18th. I think the internets will continue their run through this week. The Market Watch IPO on Wed should propel momentum, and alot rides on the YHOO earnings tomorrow. I believe that by the end of this week we will begin to see some weakening. Then, next week we have this: WASHINGTON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will speak on the state of the economy before the House Ways and Means Committee on Jan. 20 at 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT), a committee spokesman told Reuters Wednesday. Committee Chairman Bill Archer, a Texas Republican, will announce later Wednesday that the committee's first hearing of the new Congress will be held Jan. 20 and the witness will be Greenspan on the economy, committee spokesman Ari Fleischer said. I think it is entirely possible that this could be the catalyst for a severe near term correction. We are in similar, if not more optimistic times to when Greenspan issued his 'irrational exuberance' statement that presaged a nasty sell-off. He may say something similar this time, although I think he will say that the economy is just fine, if not stellar. But given the gains in some of these net stocks people are just left with their jaws agape. If it was irrational exuberance to Alan before it might well be delusional insanity to him now. Personally, I will be very cautious heading inot next week, and that stands as my guess for this little contest.

To: Don Pueblo who wrote (844)	1/24/1999 11:48:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

TLC, I covered most of my shorts on Friday, except for a few freaks like IMON. I look for the market to dip at the open but then rally either Monday afternoon or Tuesday afternoon. Whether the rally can take the market back up will depend mostly on whether the Republicans wind up the impeachment or create a circus with sex testimony on national TV. Should Byrd's move to dismiss be successful, we will get a huge (but maybe short lived) rally in everything.