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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (36406)	1/25/1999 12:58:00 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

William -- "The official China Daily Business Weekly suggested on Sunday that a devaluation or floating of the yuan may not be a bad thing." When China said it would not devalue last year, what they meant was that they would not give in to pressure from speculators. For people watching closely, it was assumed that some devaluation would occur in 1999 if there was labor unrest -- and there is labor unrest as the Chinese banking system is listing badly under the weight of bad debt in the public sector, and the public sector is being forced to fire millions of workers who are desparate and unhappy with the voernment. To keep growth going and avoid a very nasty outbreak of violent deomonstrations, China will devalue, the only questions is when and how and what will be the consequences. Take care -- this is real.