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Strategies & Market Trends : Working All Day, But Trading Behind the Bosses Back Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John M. Gelnieau who wrote (106)	1/25/1999 7:49:00 AM
From: Mark[ox5]	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 779

John, Im not that deep into charting.. Im vaguely familiar with head and shoulders... but all I know is I dont like when averages break big time support (such as 50 day or 200 day) I do look a lot more at fundamentals such as China, Brazil, Clinton, etc... but my take is until Brazil affects Mexico we should be ok, Clinton won't be impeached, but uncertainty is bad for the market, and China will NOT devalue... that would really f@#! up the Asia region. We could see a whole string of devaluations if China gets the ball rolling. Right now NYSE is sitting right AT support, but it did the same thing in December, so we shall see relatively soon if we have a bounce. Its not a time to be fully invested for those who are cautious. I'm at around 30% cash as of this morning, and I'm a guy who usually uses at least 20-30% margin, so for me this is about half of the money I usually put in the market. (i.e. being cautious here) If BCST plays out well today and I sell I'd be closer to 50% cash and about 30% long term equities/options (that I dont trade), leaving me only 20% to plau the short term. I will probably be starting my NAVR position today though! We shall see, Hong Kong down overnight pretty big but Japan steady. UK is only slighly down... Germany down pretty good. Futures down... but SP only -2. I just dont see a major down in the NASDAQ at least for a few days since it lost 5% in 2 trading days... that is a LOT. It doesnt mean the medium term trend is UP, but after a 5% selloff I expect to see some buying at least in the tech area. Better to err on side of caution in this sort of market and if markets tank than you get the nice blue light specials. Mark