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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wayne Finucan who wrote (278)	1/31/1999 12:55:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

Wayne, et al, Barron's GMI was 310.07 on 1/28/99, down from 337.16 last week. With the POG up to 285.40 (1/29), the ratio is 1.086, down significantly from last week's 1.175 and the second lowest ratio recorded since we starting looking at in early 98. It continues in the range of values that strongly suggest that the XAU will be substantially higher within a year. See post 9 on this thread for a reference to data on which this is based. For what it is worth, Auger, the Elliott Wave expert (http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/wrapup.html#wrapup), below but only after a little near-term strength. Auger's also projects a low this Summer. You might also be interested in his plot of the POG/XAU ratio. It is equivalent to the inverse of our ratio and his chart show more extreme values. It may also be of interest that PEI's projected short- and intermediate-term trends for gold are relatively neutral and their short-, intermediate- and long-term trends for silver are all strongly bullish. However, in his latest issue of World Capital Markets Review, Armstrong commentary continues to be relatively bearish for both gold and silver. He seems to expect major lows for both in the year 2000. The PEI Website url is pei-intl.com. You get to the market trend indicators by clicking on "Global Market View" on the left of the screen. I should emphasize that these comments/observations are offered for information only. I have no opinion on merit of any of these projections; particularly with respect to the many very bullish projections posted on other threads. However, I would like to add just one personal thought that occurs to me each week when I post the GMI/POG. It is that it seems axiomatic to me that as the price of PMs fall below the cost of mining them, the price of shares of related mining companies will fall more rapidly and the ratio will collapse. Therefore, the ratio is telling us where the price of PMs is relative to their cost of production. A collapse in the ratio is equivalent to saying there is blood in streets - the time to buy. I don't mean to suggest that the ratio can't be used in other ways, e.g. a short-term, over-bought/over-sold indicator, but that, while the ratio has no magical significance, it has a sound fundamental basis from a long-term perspective. I would be very interested in anyone's comments on the merit/signficance of the ratio. Cheers, Larry

To: Wayne Finucan who wrote (278)	2/8/1999 7:07:00 PM
From: banco$	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

GOLD ANTI-TRUST ACTION COMMITTEE TAKES DONATIONS, PREPARES LAWSUIT AND "SHAREHOLDER REVOLT" Contact: Bill Murphy, GATA Chairman 603-433-9389 RYE, NEW HAMPSHIRE, U.S.A., Monday, Feb. 8, 1998 --The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has formally incorporated itself in Delaware and has begun negotiating with law firms interested in undertaking its lawsuit against the Wall Street investment houses it accuses of illegal collusion to control the price and supply of gold, other commodities, and certain related financial securities. To finance its lawsuit, the committee also has begun to accept contributions from gold-mining companies, their shareholders, and people who want to defend gold's traditional monetary function. The announcements were made here today by GATA Committee Chairman Bill Murphy. "The committee is only 2 weeks old,'' Murphy said, "but we already have received substantial pledges from mining companies and individuals alike and are certain to retain a law firm. So we are notifying people who have made pledges that we are prepared to accept their contributions now." Murphy said contributions should be mailed to Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc., in care of John D. Meyer, Treasurer, Box 885, Great Barrington, Mass. 01230. "We believe that our cause is a noble one -- the creation of a free and transparent market in gold -- and that all who assist it will be rewarded in some way if price fixing is defeated," Murphy continued. "If they work in the gold-mining industry or own gold shares or physical metal, they may be rewarded tangibly. And even if they have no special connection to gold, they will be rewarded by the restoration of the crucial restraint gold always has applied against irresponsible currency policies throughout the world. "We believe that transparency in the gold market can be increased by publicizing the dangerous growth in speculative short positions taken by the Wall Street investment houses with borrowed or 'leased' gold. We believe that this speculative short position now exceeds 3,000 tons, about 500 tons more than the yearly gold mine production of 2,529 tons. We believe that the investment houses are colluding to suppress the price of gold because their speculative short positions cannot be closed without causing a gold-buying panic. "We are also going to call the gold-mining industry to task and urge a 'shareholder revolt' against the senior companies that are excessively hedged and themselves helping to suppress the price of gold. Some of these mining companies have unrealized profits of hundreds of millions of dollars in positions that could be closed by buying back their forward gold sales. Those profits could be distributed to shareholders or used to acquire more gold resources. "We will ask investors to own only the shares of gold producers that have modest hedge positions or no forward sales at all. We will urge investors to sell their shares in the producers that are helping to devastate the gold industry. "As the collusive shorts are exposed, they will be forced to cover, the price of gold will rise, and mining shareholders will be rewarded for buying the shares of unhedged and less-hedged companies." Murphy also announced that the GATA committee is developing an internet site to publicize excessive hedging by gold producers. "We want gold fund mangers as well as shareholders to know about excessive hedging," Murphy said. "Now that we are negotiating with law firms to bring a lawsuit against collusion to suppress the price of gold, no contribution to the GATA committee is too large or too small," Murphy said. "All contributors will receive a written acknowledgement and be placed on the committee's mailing or emailing lists, as they prefer, and be sent progress reports about the committee's work. "As collateral we can offer only our sincerity and the rightness of our cause. But we believe that this is still America and that one man with the law is a majority. If we can continue to mobilize the gold community, we can change the world.'' -END- Message 7708359