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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (13072)	1/25/1999 6:35:00 PM
From: Ditchdigger	Respond to of 29382

Thanks Sergio,think I read there were 20 internet IPO's comming in the next couple of months..I'm going to hang on the sidelines for a bit and watch the Christmas trees grow<g>..DD PS: Mt Snow got 2 new Bombardier snowcats..they look like spaceships,very high tech equipment-metalic gray,with molded air louvres etc...fancy..;^)DD

To: Sergio H who wrote (13072)	1/26/1999 12:31:00 PM
From: Sal D	Respond to of 29382

Sergio, From a USA Today article. 1/17/99 There's a new battle cry on the Internet: “You've got sales.” But the raft of would-be retailers rushing to the Web may end up with cyber-bruises. Entrepreneurs and established merchants alike, emboldened by sizzling holiday Web sales, are stampeding to introduce or enhance on-line offerings. “This industry is the wild, wild, West all over again, and we love it” says Scott Blum, founder of Buy.com, a site for cut- rate merchandise on the Internet. Yet stock prices slid on major Internet stocks last week as the markets took a brief reality check. and when it comes to e-commerce, here's another dose of reality: The onslaught of on-line shopping services that will pick up steam this year are sure to make life harder for all Web merchants. Competition will stiffen, price wars will break out and sales gimmicks will abound. “Everyone is going to want in,” says James McQuivey of Forrester Research, which tracks Internet trends. Already, the Internet is filling up fast with shopping choices. The proportion of retailers selling on the Internet rose from 12% in 1997 to 39% in 1998, Ernst & Young reports. There are still plenty of potential shoppers to lure. The estimated $7.8 billion in sales over the Internet in 1998 will climb to $108 billion by 2003, Forrester predicts. With those kind of expectations, it's no wonder that a company such as Compaq Computer was willing to pay $220 million for Shopping.com. As sites multiply, on-line line shopping may lose some of its investment allure. Potential problems include: Increased competition. As the Internet matures, consumers could face more on-line shopping choices than they want or need. Sites that aren't backed by major names, will disappear. “A shakeout is inevitable,” says Ford Cavallari of consultant Renaissance Worldwide. Discounting. Internet sellers are doing their best to establish their names and grab market share - even of it means deep discounting or big losses. It's already happening. While most Internet retailers focus on taking advantage of their lower overall costs to beat the prices in traditional stores, other sites are trying to undercut Internet prices. For example, while Amazon.com and Barnesandnoble.com surprised the book world by offering 30% off most hardcovers, upstart rivals such as Buy.com are offering 50% off best sellers. The privately owned But.com is subsidizing product sales with advertising on its site. “We have no intention of making money on selling products,” founder Blum says. “But we do have the intention to make money on advertising.” Price comparisons. While low prices are critical in any phase of retail, one of the Web's unique features, the ability to allow instant price comparisons, will make life even harder for retailers. Now, in an instant, consumers can find the lowest price for identical items among competing retailers - and be directed immediately to that site - by using such comparisons search engines as pricescan.com or compare.com. A new Internet shopping search engine developed by Inktomi will allow on-line retailers to show the competition's price on a product, so the shopper doesn't have to visit a comparison site. Gimmicks. Retailers will use programs to try to engender buyer loyalty from Internet users who are always just a click away from the competition. One of the most potent is the ability to learn more about a customer's likes or dislikes and use them to pitch products to them directly through e-mail or when they visit the site. Sears, foe example, is trying to figure out how to use its database of credit card purchases by 70 million households to aid its Internet efforts I don't know Sergio but its apparent that the Internet is here to stay and expand at will. It's just going to get harder to pick the winners. Further, coming into 1999 it is good to see that analysts are getting a handle on the Internet valuation process and are falling back on fundamental analysis to determine the relative value of securities. Small cap markets have a far better potential to rally if analysts are seeking out opportunities based on the use of relative valuation as a selection tool. Many small cap stocks are undervalued compared to the large cap market and may represent good candidates for inclusion in the growth component of fund portfolios. The trend back toward logic as a useful means to select a stock purchase may just be the factor that aids a rebound in the small caps. The question in my mind is are they getting a handle on the Internet valuation and is the trend toward logic as a useful means to select a stock actually happening. It sure would make things easier. Waiting for that small cap rebound. Joe