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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (3929)	1/26/1999 7:12:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5676

BB, Assuming the failed H&S and that the market will be up today here is a possible scenario for a very near top. If we don't see SPX 1220 or at least 1225 taken today, then I think we'll go to marginally new highs (1290-1305) in 5-6 trading days, which could be the top for the next two years. The rally from 10/8 to 11/27 is minute 1 (36 trading days and 270 SPX points). The smaller rally from 12/15 to 1/8 is minute 3 (20 trading days and 142 SPX points). Minute 5 could keep that ratio and gain 80 SPX points in 11-12 trading days. From here it could take the form of a strong 3-4 days rally to 1290, a one-two days consolidation around 1280-1290, and one-two days rally to 1300 area but not over 1305, and complete minute 5 of minor 5. Then Intermediate 4 of Primary 5 IMO will take the form of something between '87 and '69- A crash within 4-6 months to new lows (under SPX 930). It's possible that the 1300 top would only be minute 1 of minor 5, downgrading the recent rallies from minute to minuette. In that case I would assume the minute 3 and 5 rallies will also be smaller then minute 1. OTOH if we fail to take 1240 in the first hour of trade, and try for 1225 in the afternoon, then we're going to break 1220, consolidate for a day 1210-1220, and head for 1160-1180 area. JMO ATG