To: TLindt who wrote (1657 ) 1/25/1999 8:29:00 PM From: Ron S Respond to of 20297
The past is not just prologue, its the start of the trend. It used to be Howdy Doody time for this stock, clownin around like the late Clarabelle. Its now portal time and its post time for us. Some brokerage houses will soon finish up with '98 estimates (now actuals), and roll out estimates by one further year into 2001. This should allow the smarter of the group, assuming there is same, to catch up with those Killen forecasts and post supergrowth rates in that year's earnings estimates, justifying target prices into the 50-75+ area. Up to now, its been a liability to have earnings. (Those fancy internet stocks cannot be valued on earnings yet, hence the potential was theoretically infinite.) With CKFR on the earnings track, P/E ratios count and the extra year look forward is what is necessary to get to a low P/E and hence "excellent value" at these prices. In the meantime, customer growth counts, number of billers, and other signs of movement toward this earning potential are meaningful. Portals are a market electrifier of late and will give a great jolt, too. It would be nice to see a few more analysts cover this stock (I wish we could adopt Mary Meeker) since the present group has largely embarrassed itself by not pounding the table on this one. They have been afraid of the paper tiger MSFT, Pete's one mistake last August, and the lack of a spur to growth which the banks should have provided long ago. They will soon see the company for what it is, a clear-cut market leader (80% market share and the only operating, pay-anyone system) in a fast growth area with key alliances to big billers, Oracle, Intuit, Integrion, and now portals. Killer ap, lets Killen, lets killem.