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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (5873)	1/26/1999 10:23:00 AM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78476

I too have been looking at toy and mat but what i am thinking is these companies have one big quarter so why get them now? There are so many things that could go wrong between now and Oct- Nov.

To: James Clarke who wrote (5873)	1/31/1999 6:07:00 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Respond to of 78476

Re your comment on TOY inventories, I would appreciate your comments on this situation. J Baker(jbak) has a 7% convertible note due 6-01-2002 with a current price of about 75. Yield to maturity about 16%. Wall street is usually correct and the consensus is that the bond is super junk. My review of the 10Q shows inventories rising from 159 million to 187 million and quarterly sales about 138 million. This inventory seems excessive to me. Another negative is long term debt at 211 million ,including the 70 million convertible,and equity of 80 million. On the plus side the company has positive earnings, current assets of 218 million and current liabilites of 61 million. They are in the big and tall and uniform retail sales and I suspect that inventories would be much higher than typical soft goods retail. I do not believe the stock is a good value but certainly do not see signs of imminent disaster implied in the bond price. P.S. I find your posts very well informed. Please continue to give us your insights.