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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Calvin who wrote (91420)	1/26/1999 2:34:00 PM
From: Patrick E.McDaniel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Calvin, is Dell up today? :o)

To: Calvin who wrote (91420)	1/26/1999 4:26:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Wow! To all Compaq watchers: watch the operating cash flow. While I generally use EBITDA, in the case of CPQ I would watch non-cash changes in A/R closely because of sales into the channel and their propensity to use factors. Some time ago, Jim Kelley and I had a discussion about a potential cash flow crunch. I wonder whether the spin-off of Alta Vista is designed to meet that problem. If that's the case, look for CPQ to IPO Alta Vista directly with little or no distribution to current shareholders. Maybe (just conjecture here -- no facts to back this up) this is the reason why so many brokerage houses are bullish on CPQ -- they want the IPO business. TTFN, CTC

To: Calvin who wrote (91420)	1/26/1999 4:41:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 176387

Schmuck analysts & the Dell gang on Si. Calvin: Thanks for that report from MarketWatch,I didn't see that one about CPQ until you pointed it out as I was out and about just enjoying the weather and getting some documents ready to open an account with an overseas broker,so I missed the action in the after noon but I knew we would do Ok so I wasn't all that concerned. Perhaps Jim Kelly and Gabriel might be right after all,man these guys are good they expressed their views along the lines of what the analysts are saying now, way before the news came out today,Jim actually predicted this a couple of months ago.I say these guys are better than the schmuck analysts any day. Now if it turns out to be right I think we owe them a debt of gratitude for sharing their views with us.Heck even if it doesn't turn out to be true they deserve our thanks,in my opinion of course.

To: Calvin who wrote (91420)	1/27/1999 7:27:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Wrong!!!! The pundits are wrong again-I love it. Calvin: It looks like the 'expert' analysts are wrong yet again!You surprised? ====================== biz.yahoo.com Article from yesterday (jan.26) from MarketWatch that you kindly posted. =========================== Compaq nagged by revenue concerns By Binti Harvey, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 1:25 PM ET Jan 26, 1999 NewsWatch NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- While Compaq Computer Corp. shares surged on its planned spinoff of Alta Vista Tuesday, analysts worried that the company will report revenue that falls short of targets in the fourth quarter. The leading computer systems manufacturer (CPQ) advanced 5.6 percent on reports it will spin off its Alta Vista search engine unit for as much as $2 billion. The buying spree triggered by the announcement may be short-lived, however. Compaq will report fourth-quarter results Wednesday, and although it is widely expected to post a modest upside surprise, analysts expressed concern that revenue will not meet projections. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by First Call is 37 cents a share, down from 42 cents a year ago. Compaq will report before the market opens Wednesday morning. "We have been looking for earnings of 39 cents on revenue of $10.75 billion, the former just a shade over the consensus, and the latter somewhat below management's $11 billion guidance exiting the third quarter," said SG Cowen analyst Richard Chu. Amid declining average selling prices for personal computers, revenue growth is acquiring greater significance as a measure of performance for computer makers. Although lower PC prices have increased consumer demand, unit shipments must accelerate substantially to sustain historic revenue and profit growth. "We believe investors will focus more on Compaq's top line than its bottom line results and believe outlook statements will dictate how the stock trades," said Kimberly Alexy, computer analyst for Prudential Securities. Despite PC unit volume growth of about 20 percent and significant market share gains in the fourth quarter, many analysts expect sales to fall short of management's guidance of $11 billion, projected at the end of the third quarter. Compaq's channel inventory management may also return to haunt the company. Analysts have conflicting opinions about the company's inventory levels exiting the fourth quarter. Piper Jaffray analyst Ashok Kumar believes that Compaq is "channel stuffing," or shipping excess inventory to the retail channel to inflate shipment figures. Compaq and other PC makers' profits fell prey to oversupply at the same time last year, as the companies waged an aggressive price war to reduce excess inventory. "We now estimate Compaq's PC sales-in level in the fourth-quarter is expected to be inflated by about two weeks of shipments," said Kumar. Alexy disagrees. "The fourth quarter marks the first quarter where PC sales into the channel equaled sales out," Alexy said. "Channel inventory levels have remained at between 3 to 4 weeks for the full quarter." On the positive side, Compaq will likely report impressive PC unit volume growth. The company remains the PC market leader, and the PC business is expected to have generated approximately $7.8 billion in revenue, driven by strong consumer sales in December. Analysts also expect strong gross margin improvement, from 24.9 percent in the third quarter to above 27 percent.