Here's another...I guess Q4 is only a data point and does not indicate a trend.
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Dow Jones Newswires
Boeing Beats 4Q Views, But For Reasons That Leave Doubts
By NANCY FONTI Dow Jones Newswires
NEW YORK -- Boeing Co. (BA) needs more than better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings to prove to Wall Street that it has a healthy pulse, analysts said Tuesday.
Before the market opened on Tuesday, the Seattle aircraft manufacturer reported profits of $465 million, or 48 cents a diluted share, about 14% better than the 42 cents analysts expected.
The latest quarter included tax benefits of $30 million, or three cents a share, the company said in its news release.
"The 48 cents doesn't reflect a more positive performance," said Lehman Brothers analyst Joseph Campbell. "It doesn't have anything to do with their ability to build planes profitably."
A lower tax rate was the main reason earnings passed expectations, Campbell added. Boeing was taxed at about 16% in the latest quarter, down from the usual 30%, because of previous tax credits, he explained.
NYSE-listed shares of Boeing recently traded at 35 5/16, down 1.9%, or 11/16, on volume of 3.2 million shares, compared with average daily volume of 5.2 million.
In the year-ago quarter, the company reported a loss of 51 cents a share, which included an $876 million after-tax charge to phase out two McDonnell Douglas Corp. planes it inherited in its merger with that company. Excluding the charge and other items, a year ago the company earned 29 cents a share.
Revenue came in at about $17.1 billion, a little better than expected and up from $11.7 billion a year ago.
"Sales were slightly better than thought, and better for military than for commercial," Prudential analyst Nick Heymann said. Defense accounts for a little less than 40% of revenue, and the commercial side accounts for the rest.
Also in the quarter, Boeing delivered 13 more commercial planes than it previously projected, bringing total deliveries to 191. Some of those planes are under short-term operating leases.
But ING Baring Furman Selz Analyst Sam Pearlstein of attributed the better-than-expected earnings to the higher deliveries in addition to the lower tax rate.
Boeing's challenge - reworking its production system and regaining financial control of itself - is a project that Heymann expects to take 16 to 20 more quarters to complete.
The company is still recovering from production problems that ate away at earnings in 1997, the Asian financial crisis that hit later that year and extended into 1998 and the never-ending competition from European consortium Airbus Industrie.
In the meantime, fourth-quarter earnings aren't terribly important to Wall Street, which is waiting to see how the company will handle the orders for 620 planes that it plans to deliver this year.
"Nobody cares about earnings in the fourth quarter of 1998," said Bill Whitlow, a Seattle money manager for SafeCo Corp., which holds Boeing stock. "What the investment community cares about is peak earnings in 1999."
Pearlstein, of ING Barings, added that in the latest quarter Boeing boosted its customer-financing reserves by about $50 million, which partially offset the tax benefits.
In addition to announcing the fourth-quarter numbers, Boeing reiterated its expectations for 1999 and trimmed delivery and revenue projections for 2000.
The company held onto its forecast of 620 commercial deliveries in 1999 - the peak of the latest cycle. Net income for 1999, Boeing said, should arrive at between $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion on revenue of around $58 billion. Commercial plane sales should be about $38 billion; military aircraft and missile systems should be $12 billion and space and communications will amount to $7 billion.
The company expects a 1999 operating margin of between 4% and 5%.
Boeing said in its news release that it plans to deliver 480 planes in 2000, down from a previous projection of 490. Also, the revenue projection for that year is now $49 billion, down $1 billion from earlier numbers, money manager Whitlow said.
Pearlstein said the delivery revisions probably won't change earnings estimates, and Heymann said the changes aren't important in the long run. "Boeing must change how they design an aircraft with less time, labor and more outsourced components," he said. "Once corrected, they must rework the orientation of their customer base - today relationships are frayed with customers around the world."
Boeing also said margins for 2000 should fall slightly from 1999 levels because of the mix of commercial aircraft deliveries. Most of the planes delivered in 2000 will come off of newer lines with lower profit margins than older, more established families.
In its news release, the company said that the 737 next-generation program still has not turned a profit. In the first quarter of 1998, the company recognized a $350 million pre-tax loss related to the program, which in part fell victim to Boeing's congested production lines.
Asia stung Boeing last year, too. In December, the company said weak demand from Asian airlines would force it to scale back jetliner production by 25% by the year 2000. Added to the bleak financial forecast was the announcement that the company would eliminate 20,000 jobs on top of previously.
Changes at Boeing can't be expected overnight, Heymann said, but it has taken a large step toward cleaning up its financial picture by naming a former executive at General Motors Europe, Deborah Hopkins, financial chief.
-Nancy Fonti 201-938-5451; nancy.fonti@cor.dowjones.com |