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To: R. Gates who wrote (6816)	1/26/1999 3:43:00 PM
From: SJS	Respond to of 14427

I love this thread!!! Constructive discussion!! _____________ 15:00 ET Dow +104, Nasdaq +45, S&P +14.22: Those with short positions finding themselves in a tough position as the equity market continues to hold up in the face of global, economic problems... Market's resilience, no doubt, is forcing many traders to cover short positions and that is helping to extend the gains... AT&T (T -2 11/16), Coca-Cola (KO -1 1/8) and Union Carbide (UK -1 5/8) are the lone Dow components off by more than a point... In all, 20 of 30 Dow components are moving higher at this time. 14:35 ET Dow +82, Nasdaq +40, S&P +11.83: Rumblings of an imminent, and extensive, correction being silenced today as large-cap tech leaders flex their muscles and Brazil's Bovespa goes into rally-mode... Nasdaq needs a gain of 46.19 to reach a new closing high... DJTA +23.88... DJUA -0.72... SOX +13.01... XOI -4.36... XAU -2.76.

To: R. Gates who wrote (6816)	1/26/1999 3:44:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

I believe there's more money on the sidelines then you think. Since the Oct correction, I find more people cautiously bullish then they were before the April/July top. I just don't see the crash at this time. I do believe that the trend which was going straight up is now adjusting to be less severe. Eventually, IMO, the trend will go sideways for a while. If there is going to be a crash, I would suspect it will be when the market is moving sideways, not up. BWDIK??? Michael

To: R. Gates who wrote (6816)	1/26/1999 5:29:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 14427

yep, looks awful. more new lows than new highs today. ho ho ho

To: R. Gates who wrote (6816)	1/26/1999 6:02:00 PM
From: 007	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

<This bubble will burst soon...In February (even if we hit 10,000 first) everyone will be heaping praises on LT's head> I like LT and I enjoy reading his comments about the fundamentals, but I won't be heaping praise on him when this market crashes. Stubbornly calling a crash every week while the market is roaring upward doesn't deserve any praise. Everybody knows that the market is going to crash sooner or later, why should he get any praise when it's certain that he'll eventually be right. Yeah, if he called it right once and it dropped, then he should get praise, but calling forty crashes and getting one right is an embarrassing joke, not to mention a quick way to part with your money What I've learned from this is that I don't care what LT, me or anyone else thinks the market WILL do. I let the market tell me what it IS doing. And if it is crashing, I'll sell and figure out when to buy. In the meantime, I'm making much more money on the long side than I'll ever lose in a one-day panic. If you worry about crashes and try to act in anticipation of them, you'll cut your profits and maybe even create losses. Meanwhile, trying to short a crash is betting on when it will occur. The probability of timing that correctly is very low, so I consider that play extremely speculative. There are many easier ways to make money than trying to time a crash, and that's something that we should all learn from LT. Instead of buying puts and betting on when the crash will occur, bet on the super bowl, at least you have near-even odds. We're in an unprecedented bubble and I believe it will end with a terrible bear market, but continually fearing a crash is not the way to play this IMO. You can make much more on the long side than you'll ever lose before going to cash when the truth hits the fan. Markets don't just crash without warning. Everybody needs to reach a pinnacle of bearishness at the same time, and barring an unprecedented catastrophe, that just doesn't happen when the market is coasting upwards. It takes snowballing bearishness that can only be fueled by at least a couple of days with significant and surprising drops. When I see that, I won't hesitate to go to cash, because at these levels, we could have the mother of all crashes. But everybody needs to want to sell at once, and you should be able to see that developing. All major crash charts that I have seen have been precipitated by a steep drop lasting at least two days prior to the panic. Sell into that or on the morning of the crash, and your losses will be small enough that if you go long on the bounce, you'll quickly make them up. Since October, they've been giving money away on Wall Street. It won't last forever, so grab that cash and make a stash. 007