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To: Peter V who wrote (6824)	1/26/1999 8:17:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Pete, RIG's support is actually 24-25. It has done it the last 4 times. RIG is the rightful leader among the drillers and it has managed to hold onto this status for a long time (at least 6 months). Being a leader it retreated less than OSX and the rest of the offshore drillers when the tide is down. It also made above average gain when the tide is up. Afterall, fundies does count <GG> a bit. My opinion on the drillers and OSX is they will go nowhere in the next 6 months at least with the risk of going down greater than going up. There is always that constant mood swing that happens once every few weeks on this group and this will likely go on for a few more times within the trading band. For now the downside risk is pretty sharp as the market absolutely cannot take any disappointment from any development leading up to OPEC's meeting in Feb/March. If no fresh pledges (although we know pledges means nothing when the count is in) are announced, this group will tank further with the likelihood of breaking below their supports, individual and OSX. Those who do not understand what it means to be in an oil depressed state should revisit the long term charts of any driller. Not to say they will be in as bad shape in the next 5 years as in the 80's, suffice it to say 1999 will not be good for them. However, I personally feel this group can provide great profit opportunities this year by active trading. For example, we know that the Jan effect as well as the recent renewed hope for more consolidation (urged on by GLM's Rose) drove selective few "premium" drillers like RIG, DO and NE up. Now that the interest has waned again, guess where they trade today <GG>. I'm short NE for now but will cover any moment oil goes up in any significant way. If the reversal is sustainable, I will go long NE, RIG or DO or any driller that got temporarily hammered unmercifully. For sure I will not catch the top and the bottom, but I think the opportunity to make this (has been for two years) a weekly staple trading profit will continue. TA may be good now (my first tool) but do keep a keen eye on the sentiment side of the equation as well.