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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (6819)	1/26/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Respond to of 9523

Drug Makers 4Q -2: Analysts Look To Sources Of Growth >MRK 01/26/99 Dow Jones News Service Analysts said there were no surprises in the quarterly results reported Tuesday. Top-line growth at American Home Products has been slowing, so the lag was expected. But observers are focused on what the company's sources of growth will be and speculation remains about whether the company will seek a merger partner to augment growth. American Home Products' failed merger attempt last year with Monsanto Co. (MTC) left Wall Street wondering how the company would maintain sufficient growth on its own. The company "has a moderately attractive pipeline" that should start to contribute to earnings in 2001 and 2002, said HKS & Co. analyst Hemant Shah. American Home Products' sales were $3.2 billion in the quarter compared with $3.6 billion a year earlier. World-wide consumer health care sales rose 10% on higher sales of nutritional supplements. The sales were offset in part by lower sales of Axid AR. World-wide agricultural product sales rose 13% on higher sales of herbicides and insecticides. The company's fourth-quarter charge was related to the costs of the reorganization of the pharmaceutical and nutritional supply chains, primarily in the Asia Pacific and Latin America regions; the reorganization of the U.S. pharmaceutical and consumer health-care distribution systems and a reduction in personnel from the globalization of certain business units. Aside from the top-selling drugs at Merck and Schering-Plough, other notable products fueled growth at the companies during the fourth quarter. Sales of Merck's osteoporosis drug Fosamax and anti-hypertensive Cozaar/Hyzaar had strong growth. The cholesterol-lowering drug Zocor had strong sales even as competition continues, though the drug has lost market share to Lipitor, co-marketed by Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Warner-Lambert Co. (WLA). Merck said in December that its prescription share was leveling and added sales staff to focus particularly on the drug. "Merck's trying to gain share - they're not throwing in the towel," Hambrecht & Quist's Zisson said. Other Merck products, including Prinivil, Singulair and Aggrastat, also contributed to product sales volume gains. Growth from the Merck-Medco Managed Care products and the effect of the Astra Merck Inc. restructuring also boosted sales at the company, which totaled $7.5 billion compared with $6.2 billion a year earlier. Foreign exchange reduced fourth-quarter sales growth by one percentage point. Foreign exchange had no impact on Schering-Plough's fourth-quarter sales, which were $2.1 billion compared with $1.8 billion. Combined world-wide sales of the company's Intron A and U.S. sales of Rebetron Combination Therapy were $217 million, up 37% from a year earlier. The company's Nasonex and Vanceril allergy/respiratory drugs also contributed. World-wide sales of animal health products were up 9% while Schering-Plough HealthCare Products sales rose 15%. Although Merck is growing at a double-digit rate, there is concern in the market about its future growth too because the company faces a number of upcoming patent expirations. Analysts also noted that Schering-Plough's Claritin patent expires in 2001. "That's by far their single biggest drug," Shah said, adding that the company has been aggressively trying to extend the patent to ward off generic competitors.

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (6819)	1/26/1999 9:11:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Mini-Report: 1/26/99 A new day...a new format for the mini-report! Have PFun! BigKNY3 _________________________________________ Today's PFE Stats: Strong move up with the general market....... Gains helped by strong reported Celebrex specification during the first week and positive Big Pharma earnings reports. Dow Jones: 9,325 :+121.26 (+1.32%) PFE - PFIZER INC Last Price: 120 1/8 at 16:32 Change: Up 2 5/8 (+2.23%) High: 120 3/8 at 15:59 Low: 116 1/2 at 12:00 Open: 118 Previous Close: 117 1/2 on 1/25 Volume: 2,987,000 30-Day Avg. Volume: 3,157,000 Shares Outstanding: 1,297,794,000 52-Week High: 128.93 52-Week Low: 76.62 Beta: 1.01 Yield: 0.70% P/E Ratio: 47.1 EPS: 2.55 _______________________________ Short-Term PFE Trend: Moving Higher -A new pending Peabody Peak of 121.00 was set last Thursday, 1/21/99....This pending Peak should be broken on Wednesday...Expect PFE to make a run at the target Peak of 127.49 ...The positive trend will gain momentum in anticipation of more positive PFE news this week. Target Peabody Peak: Remains at 127.49 (+6.1%) by this Friday, 1/29/99. Target Peabody Valley: If the trend prediction is wrong and PFE heads lower, the target Peabody Valley is 106.55 (-11.3%) by 2/2/99. Predicted PFE Level: At the current Dow level of 9,325, the predicted PFE price is 121.33. Accordingly, PFE is 1.0% underpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends. Suggested PFE Buying Range: $107 to $114 (1/26/99) ________________________________________________ The Peabody Portfolio Stats: # PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 29 % of purchases in the black: 100% # PFE shares purchased: 4,500 Average PFE purchase price: $63.24 Annualized return: 74.8% Current return: 81.5% # PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 2 % of purchases in the black: 100% # PFE shares purchased: 200 Average PFE purchase price: $113.63 Annualized return: 147.2% Current return: 5.7% Click here for the last comprehensive Peabody Report (1/10/99). www3.techstocks.com ______________________________________________________ Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 1/26/99 Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90. The columns include the following data: - PFE prices - % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak - # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak - # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak - predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model - difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price . ___________________________________________________ ................................................................................ Predicted .........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff ...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/ Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual 1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5% 2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0% 3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7% 4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3% 5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9% 6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2% 7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4% 8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2% 9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4% 10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7% 11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4% 12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5% 13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2% 14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1% 15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1% 16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2% 17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1% 18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9% 19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7% 20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1% 21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8% 22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6% 23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7% 24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1% 25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9% 26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9% 27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8% 28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0% 29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7% 30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7% 31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0% 32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7% 33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9% 34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6% 35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1% 36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6% 37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8% 38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9% 39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4% 40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1% 41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8% 42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1% 43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5% 44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6% 45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6% 46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0% 47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4% 48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9% 49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1% 50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0% 51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6% 52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3% 53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5% 54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6% 55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8% 56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2% 57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4% 58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0% 59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2% 60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6% 61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5% 62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6% 63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4% 64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7% 65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9% 66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7% 67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7% 68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6% 69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6% 70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8% 71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1% 72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........+5.4% 73....Peak....1/21/99 ... 121.00.......+10.4%.......9...0..... ........Pending ______________________________________________ Average..Peak (1999) N=1..............+10.4%......9.............0 Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3 Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7 Average..Peak (90-99) N=37...........+28.0%.....64 ............4 Average..Valley (1999) N= 1 ......... -15.0%......12 .............4 Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3 Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2 Average..Valley (90-99) N=36 .........-14.4%.....30 .............6