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Technology Stocks : Brightpoint - CELL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Lempel who wrote (1352)	1/27/1999 12:02:00 PM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 1999

$15? Not even up 10%. Relax, Brian. With CLST's, uh, questionable history, I don't think investors are going to be so quick to jump back in this time. Besides, they still have the SEC uncertainty hanging over their heads. Technically, though, it does look pretty good today, so it might not be a bad time to jump in. What are the full-year estimates for CLST? Only one more shopping day till CELL-time... Paul

To: Brian Lempel who wrote (1352)	1/27/1999 12:30:00 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1999

Brian, I did some quick math: CLST is trading at slightly more than 10x this year's estimates (I believe the .81 current estimate, which is obviously going to rise to .90 or so after today, would still be below what they earned in '97), and they're projected to grow 20% annually over the next five years. That puts them at roughly the same valuation as CELL -- a 50% discount -- but without CELL's dependable earnings. I'll listen to anyone who wants to argue otherwise, but CELL looks to me like it's still the better of the two to hold. That said, though, a 100% earnings surprise is an eye-popper, and could move CLST out of this range in the near-term. However, if you read the statement, CLST said they believe full-year estimates are low; well, after blowing out first-quarter estimates, they damn well better be, or CLST is going to disappoint the rest of the year -- if they do anything less than .89 on the full year, they will be disappointing in future quarters. (For those not familiar, CLST earned .16 vs. estimates of .08.) Paul