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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (22955)	1/26/1999 11:33:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

JT- On 'Chinese devaluation and destruction of Brazil or beginning of the next contagion..'' Myths and reality.. when it will come we will see.. Chinese are feeling the brunt from ASEAN competitiveness and they will like to do it if they see their exports faltering. I think it is not on the cards and I will no at all be surprised.. Chinese are known to get things done without actually doing it, by sending the feelers they may be indicating to Japan and ASEAN markets to use some of their reserves in stirring up some imports.. and they may also be little pissed for seeing ASEAN's sitting on these huge chunks of reserves without letting them have some go at it through their exports. .The trade surplus of ASEA is not a healthy sign for China, don't forget China and HK are great trading partners of ASEA. Like Brazil we may see some initial problems but it will sell the rumor buy the news, yesterday Brazil debt was downgraded and every one expected markets to turn ugly but due to Brazil domestic debt the fall of real to 1.96 from close of 1.78 made exports looked rosy and equities looked cheaper.. It is the associated FX crisis which makes the story ugly.. China HK Brazil are not short of FX reserves and lines.. the peg of HK is not anymore much of a consequence what it was back in Sept..98. Don't overlook Yen strength recently traded to as low as 108, the Japanese were out to sell big time at that level, last time China wanted to devalue the Yen was at 145 going for 155. Hitting on its way 151.. I think we also had this stranglehold on Hong Kong placed by few of the ruthless 'Hedge funds' which were involved in double play.. 'Idea' was the first one to favor intervention and supported the idea (next day after WSJ condemned the intervention of HK monetary authority to punish the hedge funds..) we also were the first to point out a global hedge fund 'confluence' to rip the HK monetary authority off its reserves.. The articles of Krugman and others supporting what we were talking next morning appeared much later in the news papers. Like in case of LTCM we were amongst the first pioneers to point the absurdity of the market movement, highlighted the unsustainable Yen weakness and predicted the fall of bond in big way.. It was that fall where we capitalize and returned to market big when on 8th Oct bond gave up and we saw the opportunity to see the 1320 hit on composite as a bottom.. All markets trades are 'macro' related trades we prove it here day in day out, not denying that the supports and resistance's for us is a barometer of investors sentiments, we exploit the fear of the Accompora 's to the full. He deserves it fully. I tell Mr Accompora do a good jog shape up or shut up, like I told Tom Kurlack and his whole bunch of supporters.. I carry no weight with Wall Street but on this thread I expose their soft bellies -day in day out. Most of the time I have to earn my living from an opposite trade to what they are on, they have everything at their disposal including Jerry and others hot spice, me and rationales have to fight battles at 1228 like supports twice a week.. I don't see similar shaky environment, the 'blood sucking tigers' have been tamed or their tooth has been extracted so is their ability to tear things apart., even their attempt to short 'Internets' was blunted when we sniffed it, highlighted it, and traded opposite to their trades.. The hedge funds of the world are now in a difficult position, Sorros cuts out to be a strange 'character' as he goes about using his 'intellectual prowess' to shake the shaky markets in his directions every time he has something to say about end of the world it is strangely on the day a major player is down - outcomes Sorros with his poison chalice remedy.., It is always strange that Sorros and like him Accompora will shake the market when it sits on a strong support or a Brazil hits the markets.. I am on the opposite side of their trades and has all my capital at risk so for me on my thread I am in perfect right to expose these characters who misinterpret macro data to their liking. I do it how I see it, more often than not I am right and they are wrong.. It is few places like 'Ideas' including others who have stolen the 'element of surprise' from these 'free lancing blood suckers' of the markets.. I tell them no free lunches. Please, pay it and take it.. Our influence is immense and our reach beyond geographical limitations.. It is 'mini hundreds of people like' us who are closely 'monitored' and we make sure to expose the rumors like we did on Brazil. Or until day before I was pounding the table when every one else was so bearish to say look at 1228 that should hold and than look at my target yesterday 1255-1264, we hit 1264 on the SPH.. Is not share magic.. I noted that if market has to rally it needs to take out the 1255 comprehensively we knew the pits would like to run the stops if we close at 1259 so it had to be either a close above 1264 or at it, otherwise we would have seen a close below 1255.. I just get astonished day in day out with the accuracy and ability of our calls. It is our skin or theirs, to protect my skin I have to be aggressively open about my views and positions.. It helps me to keep a composure when all hell is breaking loose, others who get little upset about my disdain for these self-styled gurus may just skip next button.. On my territory these guys cut a sorry picture and I have no shortage of words to spare them.. Brazil should have by now taken the financial systems of the world to liquidation, this was the big gurus thumping the table. Never fail to miss an opportunity is story of their bull trend performance.. I do beat the bush or 'the chest' to register these things for posterity. From identifying the move last expiry and calling for buying puts at 1180 and 1260 we made few great trades on downside than we saw this 1228 test and predicted that notwithstanding conventional wisdom we go higher not lower until 1192 is taken out... On Internets right at the bottom we entered the market. So it is all about timing and precision. We let the people know why they should not be selling at the worst possible time and why the market is going to rebound.. So for China it is not going to start of new contagion but may be beginning of new re-alignment of trade balances acutely required in ASEAN.. Love