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Technology Stocks : THQ,Inc. (THQI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trippi who wrote (9490)	1/27/1999 4:10:00 AM
From: Todd D. Wiener	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 14266

It seems that all of you have been doing a great job minding the store, in my absence. I've been extreeeeemely busy with TechTrends, but I wanted to say a few things... I suspect that THQI may bottom at $20, and it will stage a strong rally shortly thereafter. It's very oversold now. The minor double-top at $32 occurred because the stock had overextended itself. Look at the long-term charts and you'll see that THQI peaks when it's trading at 175-200% of its 200 day MA (which happened recently). This implies that the next peak will be in the mid 40s in the next few months. My estimates: FY1998E* Revenues = $187 million EPS = $1.87 (Q4E EPS = $0.83) FY1999E* Revenues = $289 million EPS = $2.83 *These figures do not reflect the recent acquisition of Rushware (which will be accretive if Rushware's net margin is at least 2%). That's 50% growth, for a stock trading at 13 times trailing and 8 times forward EPS. If Farrell leaves THQI (and there's no evidence that I've seen), he'd probably sell the company first.The stock could be worth well over $50 in a buyout. And since no one will offer a 100% premium right now, I'd be surprised if THQI will agree to any buyout. I'm expecting the stock to more than double in 1999. That's all for now. I'll return soon (when I have more time). Best Regards, Todd P.S. As many of you know, I tend to be a bit conservative with my numbers. :o)