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To: John Hunt who wrote (27140)1/27/1999 7:31:00 AM
From: long-gone  Respond to of 116894
 
John,(all)
just saw proxy from AU, they are becoming a monster. How are LTCM & their friends going to control price when there are only 3-5 producers left in the world?
Oh well, "they" don't want a free market, then "they" can't complain when they get screwed by the market they made.



To: John Hunt who wrote (27140)1/27/1999 7:35:00 AM
From: John Hunt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116894
 
A Japanese Tale - Part II

<< The current situation.

It is common knowledge that the Japanese economy has been in a decline for all of the 90's. A massive attempt in 1995 I think it was, to stimulate growth through extensive Government intervention and spending proved to be quite unsuccessful. It also depleted the treasury and placed the country into such deep debt that it is only now, when the situation there has reached critical proportions, that a similar attempt is to be repeated.

The implications for the world are of course momentous. If Japan – the world's banker - goes under, the shock to the world will dwarf the effects of the 1929 collapse on Wall Street and what followed in the years after.

Two factors are now of interest. Firstly, Japan may just have a chance of weathering the storm if it could repatriate the – assumed? – vast wealth of its investments in the USA. These are mainly in US Government bonds and on Wall Street. The problem, of course, is that the repatriation of these funds would have widespread effects on the US economy, its markets and those of the rest of the world. It would be 'an act of war', in the words of someone interviewed on CNN's Business Day in the mid-nineties.

The second factor has to do with Japanese culture – the obligation not to 'lose face'. This manifests itself, among other things, in not being the bearer of bad news, not being seen as the cause of a problem. If the problem under discussion, as anticipated, will assume global and historical proportions, the compulsion not to be seen as the primary cause becomes so much greater to the Japanese psyche. In the extreme, this factor translates into the kamikaze principle – if you are going to be the loser, do not let your opponent live to gloat over his victory. -- cont'd -- >>

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