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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1199)	1/27/1999 11:56:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

Henry, I keep thinking about the corruption that must underly the less then tansparent Japanse system of autocratic rule. Self serving is the "key" word.....and self protecting. A lot to keep buried? Indonesia comes to mind also.... With Brazil now being effected by market forces, their system may not stand up to a lot of scrutiny either. Wonder where Brazil will stablise and if not......will this effect the US economy as much as many of the public pundants are expressing. Some Major Banks National and Regional could get whacked badily in this South American Twist....or should I say Tango FWIW....My trading signals suggest that today begins a week of intensity. Possibility of some significant swings in the Markets.... Possibility for this period 25th Jan to 4 Feb....to Mark a Top or Bottom for the next market swing. I'd like to think UP Lets See if I'm correct Chip

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1199)	2/3/1999 7:32:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Good Morning Henry, Can you give any credence to the idea that Greenspan will raise rates today .25 to signal realestate and stock markets..... I would think this has implications for weaker curriences through out the world.... He might want to but unable to...... Chip ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Feds Meet To Discuss Interest Rates By DAVE SKIDMORE .c The Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve policy-makers meeting today to determine whether interest rates should be changed are confronted with a rip-snorting, and possibly inflationary, economic expansion at home but still-fragile economies overseas. This world slump -- spreading to Brazil and elsewhere in Latin America -- poses enough of a threat to the U.S. economy and financial markets to keep the Fed's monetary policy panel from raising interest rates when it concludes a two-day, closed-door meeting today, most economists believe. Normally, the surprisingly robust recent economic numbers -- including record new home sales and the fastest overall rate of economic growth in 2 1/2 years in the October-December quarter -- would prompt the Federal Open Market Committee to raise interest rates to cool demand and head off the possibility of higher inflation. But the problem is that an increase in rates could touch off a sharp drop in the stock market. That, in turn, could quickly snowball into big trouble in the so-called real economy, where Americans earn their living and buy cars, homes, haircuts and cruises. ''It's obvious that stock prices are driving consumer spending to an extent I don't think we have seen before,'' said economist Norman Robertson of Smithfield Trust Co. in Pittsburgh. ''And so the Fed is indeed over a barrel.'' Spending by Americans not only is propelling the U.S. economy, it's fueling the export sales that are the one bright spot for much of the rest of the globe. ''That spending is very dependent on high stock prices and easy credit,'' said economist William A. Brown of J.P. Morgan & Co. ''Were there to be a reverse in financial markets ... I think you'd be surprised at how quickly we could move from a world of surprising strength to a world of surprising weakness.'' Many economists believe just such a reverse is entirely possible as waning world demand increasingly crimps the profits of American companies. ''Somehow, someday, the price of a share of stock has to be related to a company's earnings,'' said economist Carl R. Tannenbaum of LaSalle Banks in Chicago. ''And corporate earnings are really very flat.'' But, for now, the U.S. stock market is holding its own. With its drop Tuesday of 72 points to 9,274, the Dow Jones industrial average is up 1 percent from the start of the year, on top of a 16 percent gain last year. It plunged nearly 20 percent in the weeks after Russia's ruble was devalued in August but swiftly recovered in October and November after the Fed cut the benchmark rate on overnight loans between banks three times, reducing it from 5.5 percent to 4.75 percent. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress last month that rescuing the market was not, and is not, the central bank's goal. ''Our objective is the maximum sustainable growth of the U.S. economy, not particular levels of asset prices,'' he said. At the same time, Greenspan acknowledged that the stock market's impact on consumer spending has become ''real and significant.'' A severe drop in stock prices ''could lead to a considerable weakening of consumer demand,'' which accounts for two-thirds of the nation's economic activity, he said. The link between Wall Street and Main Street presents the Fed with a challenge, said economist David Jones of Aubrey G. Lanston & Co in New York. ''How do you let a little bit of air out of a bubble without collapsing it?'' Jones asks. ''That's Greenspan's dilemma. This may be his ultimate test as Fed chairman.'' AP-NY-02-03-99 0206EST