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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bernard Super who wrote (14278)	1/27/1999 2:24:00 PM
From: REH	Respond to of 93625

txs by the way you get to this site from heggenhougen.com by either Commodities & Futures, then Short Interest on Nasdaq Stocks or search the site for short interest I know of no other publication with up-to-date info - best is to call broker or maybe Chicago Board of Trade reh

To: Bernard Super who wrote (14278)	1/27/1999 3:23:00 PM
From: WineOh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

TO ALL: From the "Tell Me Something I DON"T KNOW Department" Rambus has technically broken down, in retrospect at 92 when it fell out of the distributional top it formed from early December to Mid January. But it is helpful to speculate on where the support is. The 50 day moving average is currently at about 90 so that is gone too. The first target is the gap in the chart made on about November15 from about 75 to about 77. The second target is the saucer bottom created between July and mid November. The gap @ 75/77 was created by the "break out" of this pattern. There is enough support in the $55 - 65 range to build a house on. So that is your real bottom line risk. Not pretty but accurate. This is technical analysis, and any serious good or bad news could reverse the stock's direction, including a very strong market rally etc. However, this is what the chart is saying to me. Stocks ALWAYS (99%) fill gaps. So I'll bet we see 75 again. Then it is just a matter of seeing where RMBS forms a new base to move up from. To review this for yourself, go to BIGCHARTS.COM and create a RMBS chart for 1 year with daily figures. Use 50 for the SMA and all of this will become clear. Sorry for the news. WineOh

To: Bernard Super who wrote (14278)	1/27/1999 8:03:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Bernard, Cramer made a comment about how fast stocks can fall without much short interest to catch the fall...I'm not sure if this is the case here, just an observation.... MileHigh

To: Bernard Super who wrote (14278)	1/30/1999 11:21:00 PM
From: Bernard Super	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Re: Rambus Annual Meeting - Part 1 I'm splitting this "essay' into parts - sorry for the long post. First some preliminary, more personal, observations: 1. I am now retired. I was trained in electronics engineering and computer science, practiced digital design and programming for several years, transitioned through product management to sales/marketing, then to strategic planning and acquisitions for the balance of my career - always in high technology/scientific & medical applications. Thus I have some experience evaluating companies, in senior management thinking, and with the realities of getting things done in business.. 2. I am long RMBS, and regard it as a potential "heritage stock". (The word "potential" refers merely to the fact that nothing in this life is a sure thing). 3. IMO Rambus management is on the level, competent, and in the process of executing a brilliant and sound strategic plan (i.e. (a) to develop an open industry-wide standard, with (b) rapid adoption, (c) shared R&D, and (d) a leveraged operating model = no fab, hence rapid increase in gross margin with volume). 4. The company must abide by certain legal and ethical constraints due to its being a publicly traded and listed company, and it must honor its agreements with other companies (e.g. Intel) as to confidentiality. It must also exercise common sense. High tech, volatile startups are sitting ducks for shareholder lawsuits instigated by law firms that specialize in shaking down such companies. 5. It is not the business of Rambus management to address the stock price behavior in the short term. Their job is to build a strong, lasting, successful business - everything else will stem from that. 6. And one final personal opinion: the recent dip is not the result of machinations by MMs, Rambus management or any other bogeyman. It is merely the correction of a premature runup, and it happens all the time. I expect this stock to double every year for the next eight years (check the charts of CSCO, MSFT. DELL, whoever), with plenty of 30+% dips along the way. Even with the PE coming down from 300 to 50, that's still a $2,000 stock. You won't be able to see the difference between (a split-adjusted) $75 and $110 on that chart. So, if you can't sleep nights, wait a year. You'll still make plenty of money if you get in when it's at $200, or $400. In the following report, I will be try to be concise, as a lot of the ground has already been covered by Dave B., unclewest and Woodside. to be continued - Bernard

To: Bernard Super who wrote (14278)	1/30/1999 11:24:00 PM
From: Bernard Super	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 93625

Report on Rambus Annual Meeting 1/29/99 - Part 2 1. SDRAM, SLDRAM, DDR are irrelevant to RDRAM's future - they are low performing stopgaps, that have never been realized in actual systems, and any such systems will cost more to manufacture than RDRAM-based systems in actual practice. Example: an RDRAM-based DTV would cost less than its SDRAM/DDR equivalent SDRAM/DDR/SLDRAM's best measured performance falls below that of Rambus first version. More entities are sampling RDRAMs than DDRs, and only RDRAM systems have actually worked. 2. From the fabs' point of view (they pay the royalties) Rambus' target is for a 10% cost differential per chip, in volume production. 3. Markets for RDRAM: PC/Main Memory/Graphics - 54% WS/Servers/Net Computers - 24% Communications: IP Switches/Fibre Channel/ATM - 8% Consumer: Game Consoles/Set Top Boxes/DTV - 6% Other: Copiers/Printers etc. - 8% 4. Most PC uPs will have 2 DRDRAM channels (currently 1.6 GHz capability) Cyrix's M3 uP will have on chip interfaces for 3.2 Ghz capability Digital's Alpha EV7 uP will have RDRAM interfaces for 6.4 GHz capability. 5. Intel is the most important partner at present, with ~80% of the uP market. To Tate's knowledge "the program is on track" (I believe that is an accurate quote in my notes). Intel developers Forums are often occasions for new product announcements. The next one is in the US 2/23/99. 6. Tate was not in a position to speculate on exact dates, but was confident RDRAM will be in mass production in 1999. 7. Rambus expects to have virtually 100% of the low end and commercial PC market, and only cede some share to DDR/SLDRAM in Servers and Workstations. 8. Rambus technology is chip-to-chip interface technology - for some time to come, RIMMs will need both RDRAM and RAC chips, both generating royalties to Rambus. The higher percentage rate RAC royalties will generate the greater fraction of royalties in small systems, and the smaller fraction in large systems. 9. Timing of royalty inflows (PCs): royalties are payable in the quarter following chip shipment by the fabs (avg 6 week delay), but chips usually will go through RIMM manufacturers (avg 2 week delay). So ~avg 2 month delay from chip shipment to Rambus getting paid. 10. The primary timeline bottleneck at present is the intro of the Intel's Camino chipset. Intel's history is not to admit even to the existence of a chipset until it is ready to ship. Boxmakers also have no interest in premature announcements that kill sales of current models. Thus the most likely scenario is almost simultaneous announcements by Intel of whatever they call Camino, and DELL, Compaq, et al of the new generation of 800MHZ computers (if not faster). (By now, I hope it has become self-evident that the idea that Tate is at liberty to say anything about this matter is ludicrous). 11. With regard to a potential threat uP chips with integrated DRAM - i.e. no need for chip-to-chip interfacing - Tate opined that it would be at least 10 years before this could become practical. 12. The company has accumulated $91 million in cash, and has not evolved any plans to use it! They have made two minimal investments - one in Interactive Silicon (my personal guess is as much to keep an eye on what they are doing, as anything). 13. An important detail about the Intel warrants is that they are only exercisable after two consecutive quarter where RDRAM-capability constitutes >=20% of Intel's uP sales. This means, that the accounting charge will only occur when Rambus'c earnings have reached a level where this necessary maneuver will be insignificant. 14. In sum - the story is intact. The ramp-up is under way. If Intel experiences technical hitches along the way (remember the over-heating problem?) - well that happens all the time. Can't we wait another month or two while they iron it out - if there indeed is a hitch? Regards - Bernard