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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (3532)	1/27/1999 2:45:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

Meld, You say, You can't deny that all of these valuations fly in the face of all conventional valuation methods I not only wouldn't deny it, I'd second it. That's indeed the problem, tulip crazes being what they are or castles in the sky or whatever you want to call it. Of the Internets, AOL is about the only one that conventional valuation methods halfway work on (because they've actually got earnings and finally cash flow) but even here it's extremely unreliable. The rest are like other crazes that happen from time to time in markets, biotech stocks, '80's real estate, tulips. The one thing conventional valuation does give you is an understanding that the mania will someday end, that the light at the end of the tunnel may turn out to be a train. Best, --Steve

To: RetiredNow who wrote (3532)	1/27/1999 3:35:00 PM
From: Cosmo Daisey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

mindmeld, Students of the market can draw a close parellel to AOL and IBM in the 60's (year, not price). The pundits were saying IBM was over valued yet it's stock continued to climb. IBM a bubble stock? In hindsight it looks pretty good and just a few shares bought in the 60's or even five years ago would yield a handsome reward. Schwab brokerage announced recently that 80 percent of their trades initiate on the internet. E-Trade is a monster company that is growing at a yearly rate equal to a ten year rate for traditional brokers. Merrill Lynch layed off 3000 brokers. The influence of the tradational broker and thus conventional wisdon is past. The new market is here and the investors aren't that interested in conventional wisdom or degrees in finance, that's the brokers excuse when a stock tanks. The new investor sell at a loss when the price pulls back, the traditional brokers asks you to average down because the stock is still on his firms buy list. I am not picking on you or your degrees, I have a few myself but I believe the next trade is fair value and not what happened yesterday or six months ago. We don't drive a car forward by looking in the rear view mirror and looking at past prices and charts tells us what happened but isn't really very good at telling us the price of the next trade. Fund managers are on CNBC begging us to buy the stocks they are in but their records are worse than the S&P 500 for the most part. cdaiseyPhD@next-trade.com