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Technology Stocks : Documentum (DCTM) Software -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Craig Lacy who wrote (400)	1/27/1999 5:40:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 600

My opinion only, The slide started long before the word on the guidance to analysts was officially known. Big / smart / sleezy money, take your pick, always seems to know these things ahead of lowly retail investor. Based on the highs set in the first week of the year, I wasn't surprised to see a pull back. I was very surprised to see the downward momentum build and carry forward straight into earnings report day! Without foreknowledge, the street would have to assume that DCTM would make or exceed its numbers. No warnings had been given on the current quarter. So, one or more analysts see / hear / smell a revision in revenue and earnings estimates for the next couple of quarters. Good stuff to justify some sell off, although I personally think its a little overdone given their growth rate is still quite good. I've been watching the intraday tick by tick info and plenty of times there are interesting things happening suggesting shorts have been having a good time, working to ensure no positive momentum gets started. Today's drop at the close was an example. Eventually this will reverse, and outstanding shorts will rush to cover. I suspect most have been covering before the close and not carrying much, but hey, I don't play in 50,000 share lots and can't say I know how they operate for sure. There was a lot of 1000 - 5000 trades near the close of today and not so many large trades. Two 30,000 blocks traded earlier in the day when it was still up 3/8'ish. Hard to tell where the motivation is. All you know is someone's buying at the low. Short covering? Longs returning? Your guess is better than mine.