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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: csm who wrote (45730)	1/27/1999 5:30:00 PM
From: Martin Goldenberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Stuart: It's interesting that you saw NT as a buy. I am still holding......I have lots of faith that its market capitalization will catch up to CSCO and LU. Anyway, another good play is ATI Technologies listed on both the NASDAQ and Toronto exchanges. They sell graphic accelerator chips and cards. AAPL and CPQ will be big users. It's currently undervalued and has some immediate $15 upside potential. They've got most of the market share. Once this canadian company gets really noticed on the NASDAQ, watch out. This is not a plug to buy it. I just found it interesting that we both saw good values in the same stocks....CPQ and NT. One important rule....be patient. GO CPQ!!!!!!! Martin

To: csm who wrote (45730)	1/27/1999 8:39:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Hi. My COMPAQ PC crashed this morning 2 minutes before earnings were announced. I got it going again only for it to crash again for a long time mid-afternoon. I should have heeded the omen! Its very late here, so just a brief comment. When earnings are announced as a headline, the headline usually states what part of the result might constitute a one-time write off. Why doesn't it also state what part of it is a one-time credit. The analysts on the closed CC were given information not widely available to the market. If the information about the 0.5 cents tax credit was available, it was not included in the headline with which we were all operating. A couple of days ago, I offered the opinion that CPQ fully reflected earnings of 0.37 at $47 1/2 and it would need something else to cause the share price to rise independently of general market movement. It looks like earnings may have been 0.38, not 0.43 considered realistically. On that basis a price around $47-48 appears reasonable with some scope for minor upward and downward movement. Of course, that is before considering other aspects of the company's report, such as rate of growth, market share, margins, operating expenses and so on. I'm sure that analysts will want to explore these factors more thorooughly with the company on Friday before comitting themselves to estimates of future earnings expectations. Although the preliminary information raises some questions, the general thrust appears to be positive and if this is confirmed then the share price will eventually move upward to reflect the company's prospects. I expected that earnings would be 0.41 and on that basis predicted a band of $48-52 after earnings before a pull-back and consolidation. Well, we all thought it was 0.43 this morning and we got the band. But it appears that some in the market were more aware of the 0.5cents tax credit than others. I still don't know whether that information is correct, but apparently it helped cause a reaction. Whatever the cause, the market evidently did not feel comfortable at $51 1/2 and once it started down, profit-taking and general market depression caused it to go to $46 1/2 and back to $47 1/2. The extraordinary large volume evidently contributed to the volatility. I did sell 20% of my position when it started down, I would have sold more had I had the information about the 0.5 cents. I believe carry-over volume and market commentary will contribute to renewed volatility tomorrow and there may be a chance it will dip. The Friday meeting is important. Before the market tomorrow I want to look at more analysis of the earnings and get a better handle of the p/e, both trailing and forward. If I sound a bit frustrated - I am, but I still maintain that it is $100 with splits by next January and I will hazard a guess that it will touch $60 sometime before next earnings. But in the short term, it might be better to trade it actively. On Friday we will get a better sense if it is going to make at least one more very-short-term trip to $50+