To: HairBall who wrote (4759 ) 1/27/1999 7:07:00 PM From: donald sew Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
Larry, >>>>> however I believe a new formation is in play, IND/DJI falling wedge. <<<<<<<<< I realise that you use theoretical figures; however on the actual charts I see a DESCENDING TRIANGLE being formed which implies a break to the downside. Coordinates: LOWER TRENDLINE = lows of 1/14(9088) & 1/25(9063). This line is slightly declining, but I feel it is more horizontal. UPPER TRENDLINE = highs of 1/11(9643) & 1/20(9480 & yesterday(9330) I can only eyeball it, so it appears that the APEX would be in approximately 5 trading days with the target at 9100 range. Since it could be a DESCENDING TRIANGLE only the UPPER TRENDLINE is descending. For tomorrow the range would be about 9300-9100, and each day the UPPER TRENDLINE drops about 30-40 points. Im eyeballing it so these figures are only approximations. If anyone can give more accurate figures, would greatly appreciate it. If I am correct about this DESCENDING TRIANGLE, the timing of its APEX(approximately 5 days) fits nicely with the WEDGE/PITCHFORK formation. Of course it can dissolve before 5 days. The junction of the WEDGE(lower trendline) and PITCHFORK(upper trendline) is around FRIDAY so the APEX of this possible DESCENDING TRIANGLE is only 3 days from that. More subjectively we also have the END of MONTH RALLY/WINDOW DRESSING which commonly lasts a few days into the next month. Its really getting interesting. The DOW does not have to go up too much to negate the DESCENDING TRIANGLE, which could happen immediately. If it is broken to the upside then it would give a hint that the wedge formation is in play, implying upside move as you mentioned. Since the parameters of the DESCENDING TRIANGLE are tighter, they are the first ones to watch. We are right now in a critical period and a strong movement could happen at any time, even tomorrow. I am still more bearish than bullish and at this time. All of my LONGs have been closed or hedged since 9600 so now I am only concentrating on trading for the short-term. I mention that since I dont want to give the impression that I am calling for the BIG DROP. Seeya