To: Sigmund who wrote (9508 ) 1/29/1999 10:13:00 PM From: Dennis K. Showers Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14266
Sigmond Sorry for the late reply to your question. I believe that the pattern is very definitely a piercing pattern "variation". By that I mean it is not perfect. To be perfect the open on the second day should have had a larger gap down on the open. However it did gap down below the close of the previous day and then reverse and close well above the midpoint of the black real body. Below are some excerpts from Steve Nison's book "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques". "Piercing pattern-a bottom reversal signal. In a downtrend, a long black candlestick is followed by a gap lower during the next session. This session finishes as a strong white candlestick which closed more than halfway into the prior black candlestick's real body. It is composed of two candlesticks in a falling market. The first candlestick is a black realbody day and the second is a long, white real body day. This white day opens sharply lower, under the low of the prior black day. (This is where out pattern differs slightly from the perfect pattern.) Then prices push higher, creating a relatively long, white real body that closes above the mid point of the prior day's black real body. In the piercing pattern, the greater the degree of penetration into the black real body, the more likely it will be a bottom reversal. An ideal piercing pattern will have a white real body that pushes more than halfway into the prior session's black real body. The psychology behind the piercing pattern is a follows: The market is in a downtrend. The bearish black real body reinforces this view. The next day the market opens lower via a gap. The bears are watching the market with contentment. Then the market surges toward the close, managing not only to close unchanged from the prior day's close, but sharply above that level. The bears will be second guessing their position. Those who are looking to buy would say new lows could not hold and perhaps it is time to step in from the long side." Here are some other observations. 1. The low of the second day of the pattern exactly touch my support line created by drawing a line that touches the low in early Sept. (There was a perfect piecing pattern.) and the low in mid Oct.(a morning star pattern). 2. The reversal pattern formed right at the 38% retracement level. We broke that support on the black day, opened below it and then rallied strongly to close above that level. That is bullish. 3. The volume increased as the pattern formed. 4. The day after the white candle we gapped up. That gap was through the old resistance created by the high in late July.(Notice that we also gapped across that line the day after the bullish engulfing pattern was formed in November and that we found support there a few days later.) 5. I also have an old resistance line that was formed by drawing a line connecting the high in March with the high in late April. That said, I am hopeful that we have put in the low for this recent decline. I look for us to rally back to the 27-28 level where I expect some resistance that results from a line drawn from the high in March, July and early November. That line created support until we broke down 2 weeks ago. What do you think. Whitetail