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Technology Stocks : BACKDOOR, an IPO> IDTC,BRKT,BNYN,KLOC,NAVR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DAVID C. DeANGELIS who wrote (192)	1/28/1999 12:47:00 AM
From: steve host	Respond to of 954

Disagree - XTON is a pure spin off of stock to shareholders. Thus the run is already happening (anyone who want the shares are getting in on them now or already has) - there is no way to estimate what it is really worth. ANyone who wants share in the lottery stock know that they can buy this stock now and get them later - what happens when they are spun off and there is no major house supporting them like a normal IPO. In the case of UIHIA - there is an actual IPO taking place where we know what price it will go for $28-30. Therefore, one can figure out what value there is to UIHIA of their remaining stock. Then you have the intangible of figuring out what the rest of the company is worth, but before you even get there the stock interest in UPC is over $57 at the IPO price alone. That increases by over $2 a share for every $1 UPC goes up after the IPO. The IPO is supported by Goldman Sacks and Morgan Stanley and the company itself is not just an Internet company but a monopoly cable provder in Europe with a deal with MSFT for Internet access. The two companies are like night and day - and although XTON is cheaper in $ since it is a $3 stock, it is pure speculation compared to UIHIA. Of course that is not to say it wont do well - but it is a gamble based on your estimated value of its other businesses which is hard to estimate as it is for all companies.

To: DAVID C. DeANGELIS who wrote (192)	1/28/1999 1:18:00 AM
From: steve host	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 954

Upside for UIHIA - the float on UPC in the US will only be 17 mil (even less since MSFT will be getting part of that) do you know what kind of runup that could mean on a stock coming out by Morgan and Goldman? The IPO is right now going to be at $28-30.In addition, this is one of only two primary cable providers in Europe. It has a deal with MSFT to bring Internet access to Europe with MSFT owning a stake in it ! Every $1 increase from the IPO price is worth about $2 to UIHIA value (over and above $57-$67 of UPC value to UIHIA starts with at the IPO price)- do the numbers . If the IPO goes to $60 - then that's an additional $120 in value to UIHIA above the 57-67 figure (break up value of UIHIA post IPO but not including the value of the rest of UIHIA's business). I would say from $48 to $180 is pretty good as a %. Especially when you know that you have a base well above where the stock currently trades. Not only do you have a good chance to make a ton , you also have a lot of value at this price.