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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stoctrash who wrote (4776)	1/27/1999 9:56:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Fred .. I was 100% cash in the 401k then also .. <g> Just waitin' ... Gersh

To: Stoctrash who wrote (4776)	1/27/1999 10:20:00 PM
From: Daniel Joo	Respond to of 99985

To those who know: Has the market been up in the first half of the year and neutral to down the second half of the year in recent years? I tend to agree with the post that they are bullish until the year 2005 because of the baby boomers. If you look at historic valuations, I thought the market was overvalued at 6500 a few years ago. Boomers are making a lot of money and a lot of money is sitting on the sidelines just waiting for the market to experience a downturn because they missed the last one - look at the money market fund and treasury bond contributions. A downturn would be brief - IMO. Too many dollars with too few investment options looking for high returns hoping for the higher returns from the market. The reason I ask the question is because the federal limit on 401K contributions is $10K. People are hitting that limit faster - it's amazing how many people are making 6 figures. It seems to me that the recent movements in the market make sense - downturn at the end of the year for people who have put off tax selling, strong upturn at the beginning of the year for people investing their year-end bonuses, slight lull until the 401K money starts flowing in greater amounts with more money coming after people, who sold in December, reinvest that money due to tax law restrictions. IMO, we'll see a downturn toward the end of March so that people can pay taxes. The smoke will clear and people who missed the last downturn will jump back in the market. Those people who remained invested, fearing a "double top" or "bear trap" or whatever the term, will then sell causing another downturn. That will take us to the middle of the year. 401K money will slowly start drying up, people will reallocate their 401K moneys to "safer" investments and Y2K concerns will drive down the market further. Bears will say "I told you so" until the beginning of year 2000 when boomers start investing in the market once again starting another bull run. Anyone still reading? Sorry to pontificate.