To: lorne who wrote (27204 ) 1/28/1999 8:29:00 AM From: Gord Bolton Respond to of 116762
Commodity prices rally in January, but worst is not over, say TD economists TORONTO, Jan. 28 /CNW/ - A rally in lumber, nickel and crude oil prices led to a modest rebound in commodity prices in January 1999 from the lows reached in December 1998, say TD Economists in the latest issue of TD Commodity Price Report. ''Although 1999 began on a somewhat stronger note, this year is shaping up to be another very difficult one for Canadian commodity producers,'' notes Teresa Courchene, Director of Economic Research at TD Bank Financial Group. The TD Commodity Price Index (TDCI) in U.S. dollars, which tracks the prices of Canada's major commodity exports, rose by 1 per cent in January, following a drop of 4.1 per cent in December 1998. Nonetheless, commodity prices in U.S.-dollar terms are still 8 per cent below their January 1998 levels, say TD Economists. ''Over the past 18 months, commodity prices have plummeted in the wake of the Asian economic and financial crisis and the subsequent drop in demand for most commodities,'' notes Courchene. ''Although economic reforms are being undertaken in a number of the affected countries, many developing economies in Asia -- and in Latin America -- will continue to struggle this year. In addition, a slowdown in economic growth in the industrialized countries will keep commodity prices under downward pressure in the coming months.'' TD Economists note that with global economic growth expected to be a lacklustre 1.4 per cent in real terms in 1999 -- a sustained recovery in world commodity prices is not likely to occur until late this year or early next year. ''Overall, commodity prices are expected to decline on average in 1999, and then begin to climb in the year 2000,'' says Courchene. Commodity Price Highlights - Lumber prices, which fell sharply throughout most of 1998, have rebounded markedly since November. The rally was sparked by concerns that Canadian lumber shipments to the United States may be curtailed over the next two months as producers limit exports to stay within their duty-free export quotas. - Newsprint prices, which actually increased over the course of 1998, declined in December and January, partly as a result of increased production following the end of a prolonged strike at the Canadian mills of Abitibi-Consolidated. - Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, which rose above US$13 per barrel during the cold snap in early January, slipped to US$12 per barrel when the weather turned milder across North America in mid-month. The failure of OPEC members to adhere to the production cutbacks announced over the past year has kept crude oil prices low. - Although nickel prices, which sustained the deepest losses among base metals last year, rebounded in early 1999, they may come under renewed downward pressure when production from new mines in Australia comes on stream in the coming months. - The price of gold, which averaged US$294 per ounce in 1998 -- the lowest annual level recorded in two decades -- fell below US$290 per ounce in January 1999. - Agricultural prices rose modestly in early 1999, as hog prices staged a strong rebound. This report, TD Commodity Price Report (including charts and detailed tables), is available in PDF format on TD Economics' new Home Page at: tdbank.ca . Click on TD Economics. For a fax copy of this report (8 pages), please call (416) 982-8065 -30- For further information: Teresa Courchene, Director, Economic Research, (416) 982-8064 TORONTO DOMINION BANK