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To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (92114)	1/28/1999 9:48:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 176387

European PC market share-Dell at 7.9% in 98 up from 5.4% European PC Sales Jump 22.2 Pct In Q4 1998 'Dell Computer Corp. (Nasdaq:DELL - news) was third with 7.9 percent vs 5.4 percent.' Dell increased market share by 2.5%,CPQ's increase .9%,IBM lost .03%. (Thursday January 28 9:33 AM ET ) LONDON (Reuters) - Sales of personal computers in Western Europe rose 22.2 percent in 1998's fourth quarter to 8.8 million compared with the same period the previous year, market researcher Context said Thursday. For all of 1998, sales grew 21.1 percent compared with the previous year to 24,995,185 PCs, according to Context. Compaq Computer Corp. (NYSE:CPQ - news) was market leader in 1998, raising its share to 16.9 percent from 16.3 percent the previous year. Including sales from Digital Equipment Corp, acquired in 1998, Compaq's share hit 17.3 percent. ''High growth rates were primarily achieved through soaring demand in most of Europe's consumer markets, fueled by bargain prices and attractive bundles,'' Context said. Context said that spending by large corporations trying to fix the millennium computer bug problem and introduction of the euro contributed to the strong growth. International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM - news) was in second place with 8.6 percent compared with 8.9 percent the previous year.

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (92114)	1/28/1999 12:02:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Yes, exactly. And that's the kind of euphoria that really is asking for huge losses. As I said before, the internut craze is a "greater fool theory" game in action. I have no data to back this up, but I wouldn't be surprised if the combined capitalization of the e-tailers exceeds the combined capitalization of traditional retailers like Sears and Dayton-Hudson. Doesn't it strike you as odd that people are talking about valuations in terms of multiples of sales? The investment paradigm has not, and never will change. It is always based on the expectation of future cash flows. When people base their "investment" decisions on other factors like astrology, the phases of the moon, and other patently irrelevant issues we smile at them because we know better. But when our compatriots "invest" in stocks simply because they went up yesterday and the day before, and the day before that, and they justify their "investments" by saying that company sales increases are driving value, I can't help but think that these people are equally deluded. They have managed to disconnect the issue of cash flow from valuation, and have replaced the traditional methodology of valuation, difficult and dicey as it may be, with double talk centered on sales, or eyeballs. There will come a day when the investment community runs out of fools. As a PT Barnum sign once read: "This Way To The Egress", or as I believe Polonius said to Laertes "A fool and his money are soon parted". TTFN, CTC

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (92114)	1/28/1999 12:07:00 PM
From: musea	Respond to of 176387

jhg, <OT> The key idea is that earnings don't necessarily grow proportionally with the number of subscribers. In fact, my own model of AOL's growth leads me to believe that earnings growth will greatly surpass growth in the number of subscribers through such things as co-marketing agreements and value-added services. In DELL's case, we need to see the new areas of growth in such things as high-end storage solutions. In both cases, we need to look beyond just growing the "traditional business" to start to understand how to value the stocks. -musea