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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richie who wrote (45854)	1/28/1999 11:56:00 AM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Richie: The complications arising from the merged accounts of CPQ and DEC together with so many open-ended questions about AV, has clouded the picture. The analysts, as a body, have not yet spoken. Perhaps they are confused, too, and need tomorrow's meeting. In this climate it is difficult to predict the very short-term movements of the stock. If there was not to be a meeting tomorrow I would say the stock price would erode to $45 and possibly spike down to $42 before bouncing. (On a really bad market day, it might go to $40 momentarily). However, the meeting tomorrow might produce upgrades or clarifications which would give it a boost. I think a pull-back or correction is inevitable now either from today's levels or from whatever level might be reached after the analyst's meetings. The main reason for this is that the stock is considered by the market to be fully valued at $47-49, and there will be many who bought in the 20's and 30's seeking to lock in profits and find a faster vehicle elsewhere. This should only bother traders. Entrenched long holders should see it moving up in fits and starts to $60, perhaps before next earnings. Frankly, I am uncertain, but my rheumatic twinge is telling me to be cautious.

To: Richie who wrote (45854)	1/28/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: Kenya AA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Richie: I really don't know what's going to happen short term, but it's not uncommon for stocks to move up on expectations, sell off on the news and then keep right on going up at about a 35 degree chart angle provided there's no "bad" news in the earnings. CPQ may not have beat the street, but I certainly wouldn't say they "disappointed." The general market mood bothers me more than anything else right now - I don't believe we've seen the end of the consolidation, so CPQ will be swimming upstream at best. The action in LU gives me hope though. LU did disappoint on the revenue side much much more than CPQ. When LU tanked on big volume, I thought it would bounce and then head lower - well this is some bounce! K