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To: Tom Hua who wrote (5633)1/28/1999 3:37:00 PM
From: JW Steve  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27722
 
Any idea how long after the official IPO announcement
we could expect to see the actual IPO? Is there
a mandated time limit or an expected due process?

In response to Tom, I think there will be a little
pop after the IPO announcement. I do think a lot of
people have their positions, but I also think that
the press this stock will get from the official
announcement will make it take off in the short term,
if nothing more than the fact that this thread is
bound to be top 3 for the days surrounding the IPO
announcement.

jw steve



To: Tom Hua who wrote (5633)1/28/1999 4:04:00 PM
From: Lane Hall-Witt  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27722
 
I'm not so sure that all the positions have been taken at this point. Personally, I've gone back and forth on the issue . . . but I've come to think (hope!) that there are still a lot of traders watching NAVR from the sidelines. The primary tipoff for me is the lack of NAVR hype: if everyone was in, we'd probably be seeing a lot more posts of the "NAVR's going to rock! We'll see 40 tomorrow!!" variety on the threads. Granted, on the other hand, we're also not seeing many "NAVR sucks and is going to crash and burn!" posts from those looking for better entry points.

I also believe that many traders right now have such a short time horizon that they wouldn't want to risk having "dead money" sitting in NAVR waiting for an IPO filing that's coming at some uncertain time. Why sit on NAVR when you've got IMONs and XTONs and whatever else popping up every day? I think this variety of trader is willing to risk missing the gap in order to remain liquid.

Looking at posts on SI, I've also noted a number of people who are sitting back and taking a "wait and see" attitude. These are the folks who are saying, "NAVR has been trying to get this damned IPO going since last fall; I'll believe it when I see it." This is a solid risk-averse strategy and makes a lot of sense to me.

All of this said, it certainly does remain to be seen if these people will do enough buying to offset those of us who will be selling. I'm inclined to think we'll get some good price support from the buyers. But it's certainly not a foregone conclusion and is the primary risk factor I'm considering at this point.



To: Tom Hua who wrote (5633)1/28/1999 4:06:00 PM
From: LTK007  Respond to of 27722
 
Tom I was on top of this when I bought at 5+ some time ago---I calculated there was a about a 16 million share overhang--I read the filing and saw nothing tricky or deceptive about the CPs and warrants,it was just a matter of getting them burned off---and that was when this stock had yet to fly---the volume on the heated period was furious,with some volumes hitting 30 million--and I figured these converts were all consumed---in my opinion ONLY the overhang is long gone.
Max
O,Yes another thing I checked-out who held the CPs and they were
by what I call "friendlies"--all having an overall interest in the success of Navarre.