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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (3894)	1/28/1999 4:04:00 PM
From: Joe E.	Respond to of 41369

When forecasting revenues and earnings, don't forget the rest of the world: When I analyze drug stocks, I usually figure the rest-of-world market potential equals the US market. This is probably reasonably safe (somewhat conservative though) for AOL too. Don't forget business-to-business either. Not much happening there with AOL, but why not. They are just a couple of acquisitions away from that.

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (3894)	1/28/1999 5:29:00 PM
From: im a survivor	Respond to of 41369

I'll leave all that for you hardcore number crunchers. My analysis simply tells me AOL will be the biggest Co. in the largest industry. The internet is a baby. As I said before, AOL will be so much more then an internet co. They will generate revenue more ways then you or I could fathom. As more people go online and as more people start doing more of their daily routine on the net, revenue generated will be huge. The bottom line is this, and I think most will agree- Eventually, the internet will be the largest revenue generating "industry" in the world.....AOL will have their hands on a very large chunk of that revenue. Now, is no different then last year, 3 years ago, 5 years ago, 10 and etc......I remember when everybody wondered how microsoft would grow earnings....when people were filled with doubt as to whether DELL would continue to grow at same pace. I remember when people wondered if AOL would crack the 1 million subscriber barrier. People doubted they would generate e-commerce revenue because people were afraid to " shop online ". The funny thing is, the huge % of the population still has never bought a single thing online...yet did you see the numbers they did over this past holiday season...the increase over last year. It doesn't matter what time period you look at, there have always been doubts......The big boys find a way to meet expectations....and aol is no exception. Will we correct. Most assuredly yes. When ? I have no idea, but I know AOL will be here for the long haul. The more it corrects, the more it allows new money that missed the ride to get onboard. As long as there is money being made...wealth being generated....the gorillas like aol will attract that revenue. Again, JMHO. KG

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (3894)	1/29/1999 9:56:00 AM
From: jhg_in_kc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

Chuzz, you forget that AOL will have other profits beyond subscriber dues. AOL is an electronic shopping mall, a utility company, and a tv-like media network. In the mall, you will have stores ranging from Fidelity Brokerage, to Hollywood at Home to Macy's to Victoria's secret to Wal Mart and maybe even Home Depot. You will have a health care center for vitamins and prescriptions and a doctor on call on line. You can order a pizza One day you will order a movie from your storage of titles in your internet file and download it onto your PC then burn it onto your own DVD obviating the need to go to a store. Like a shopping center mall, AOL will charge rent for its space and charge a fee on transactions conducted in the mall. (5% of profits?) As a utility company, like telephones, AOL can charge a fee for using its on line chat rooms, a modest long distance charge. As a Tv like media company, there is of course advertising. Proctor and Gamble is the first major big company to sign such a contract. So there are other sources of income beside AOL's subscriber base. Also, AOL recently contracted to do all of Latin America on Line and there is Europe waiting as has been pointed out. And then there is steve case and his new pal, Mcnealy of Sun. It would be hard to find two more savvy CEOs to navigate this new terrain. If internet usage doubles every 100 days... If Java become the "dial tone" for the Web so the interne appliance with a simple non-Windows Operating System is ubiquitous... Do you still think AOL is insanely valued. This is just off the top of my head. With some research, one can discover many other possibilities fr revenue jhg