Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (10360)	1/28/1999 5:09:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

We should probably take this up on the Creative thread, but here it goes: (1) I am very skeptical of Creative's ability to grow earnings in the next few years (as well as the short term). The stock is not priced for flat earnings. (2) Technically the picture is very poor, especially so close to the earnings, which gives me more confindence in my assessment. (3) Low valuations does not mean zip for technology stocks. The reason the valuations are low, is because tech investors (growth by nature) are very skeptical of the company's prospects. In fact, more often than not, you will do better shorting cheap stocks than expensive ones. (4) The dividend as I understand it is not a regular pay off (please correct me on this, if I'm wrong) (5) Their problems in delivering Banshee cards to GTW does not inspire confidence in me. (6) The research report that I read had estimates of $0.49 a share (and that included the $4 mill from TDFX) that I figured even if CREAF comes half way between that and the First Call's, they are still off by a big margin. (7) Brazil's devaluation will affect Creative in two ways: (a) they are a significant portion of Creative's revenue and Creative's goods just got a lot more expensive there. And (b) Brazilian companies can now compete more effectively (yes they are no name, but ...) (8) I see DIMD and CREAF get into a price war. Of course, given that Creative will announce tomorrow, I will have my answer soon (and with it the reward or the punishment). 'Heck, it's only money! Good luck to all, Sun Tzu P.S. Just my luck, I forgot to put a sell (short) order on DIMD :( PPS. STIA was up 145 points today vs. 81 for DJIA and more importatnly A/D on STIA was 23/7 vs 15/14 for all other markets :)