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To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (3062)1/28/1999 8:53:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans  Respond to of 15132
 
Put-Call Ratio

Summary from McMillian, "Options as A Strategic Investment"

The put call ratio a technical indicator that can be computed by adding the number of puts traded and dividing it by the number of calls traded. It can be calculated daily, weekly, monthly, or over virtually any time period. It is generally calculated for stock options, index options and options on futures.

The put-call ratio is a contrary indicator. A high put-call ratio would be bullish and a low put-call ratio would be bearish. There are many, many put-call ratios that can be computed.

Investors always buy more calls than puts when dealing in stock options. Therefore a normal put call ratio would be far less than 1.00. If call buying is rampant the put call ratio could be .30 on a daily basis. Bearish days would produce a reading of 1.00 or more. Average days produce a .50 ratio.

Index options produce a far higher ratio. Institutions buy many more index puts than index calls for protective purposes. Therefore when dealing with an index put call ratio the average computation may result in a reading of 1.00 or more. Bearish readings approach 1.50 and bullish readings produce .50.

Quantifying what is a high or low put call ratio is subject to interpretation. Some believe an absolute ratio should be used. For example if the 10 day put call ratio is over .60 that would be a buy signal. However, absolute rules may prove counterproductive at times.

Most technicians use 10, 20 or 50 day moving put call ratio averages. The ratio is bullish when there is too much put buying and bearish when there is too much call buying. The problem is the term "too much" is not easily analyzed.

Hope this helps.



To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (3062)1/28/1999 9:08:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15132
 
INTERNET: Stocks are wildly overvalued

From the Financial Times 1/29

It is a truth universally acknowledged - now even by Alan Greenspan - that internet stocks are wildly overvalued. But the inevitable correction could do more than separate the real from the fool's gold. There is a correlation between the internet stock bubble and the popularity of internet trading by retail investors. Both could suffer when the bubble bursts.

In the last quarter, 25 per cent of US retail stock trading was on the internet. Such trading is disproportionately concentrated in about two dozen technology stocks, most of them illiquid and highly volatile. Some brokers have increased margin requirements and at least one firm has stopped making markets in the most volatile stocks. A National Association of Securities Dealers committee is looking for ways to deal with the volatility and now the Securities and Exchange Commission has warned online investors to take care.

Nonetheless, when the correction comes, inexperienced retail investors, used only to rising prices, are bound to cry foul. If an internet stock crash leads to a broader market fall, internet trading could end up carrying the can, just as programme trading did in 1987. In the long term, the benefits of internet trading - greater access and lower costs - are highly desirable. But safeguards to ensure an orderly market, such as minimum float sizes, are needed. And preferably before rather than after a backlash.