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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ibexx who wrote (6860)	1/28/1999 11:14:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Mini-Report: 1/28/99 Tikosyn, 3-4-1 and we are having PFun! Thanks for the positive feedback! BigKNY3 Click here for the traditional video of Mr. Peabody celebrating Da Peak! marimba.com _________________________________________ Today's PFE Stats: The expected 3-1 split propelled PFE to a great start .....but the FDA advisory panel approval of Tikosyn at 3:00 pm rocketed PFE passed the target Peabody Peak. PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday quicken.com DOW JONES: Close: 9,281, +81 (+0.88%) PFE - PFIZER INC Last Price: 127.56 at 17:01 Change: Up 5 5/8 (+4.61%) High: 127.94 at 15:53 Target Peak: 127.49 (1/16/99) Low: 121 9/16 at 9:44 Open: 122 1/16 Previous Close: 121 15/16 on 1/27 Volume: 4,988,700 High Volume 30-Day Avg. Volume: 3,244,000 Shares Outstanding: 1,297,794,000 52-Week High: 128.93 52-Week Low: 77.87 Beta: 1.02 Yield: 0.70% P/E Ratio: 50.0 EPS: 2.55 _______________________________ The Peabody Model Short-Term PFE Trend: PFE will Reverse and Move Lower -A new pending Peabody Peak of 127.94 was set today on heavy volume indicative of a possible Peak....PFE broke the target Peak of 127.49 by 0.3% ....and one day earlier than predicted.This post is another Mr. Peabody classic. www3.techstocks.com Target Peabody Valley: One of the findings of the Peabody Model is that profit-taking almost always occurs near a Peabody Peak. Accordingly, the Model predicts that PFE will reverse and head lower to a Peabody Valley of 112.46 (-12.1%) by 2/11/99. A pending Peabody Valley will be established if PFE breaks a strike price of 118.98 (-6.7%) (posted: 1/28/99 PFE@ 127.56) Target Peabody Peak: If the model is wrong and PFE heads higher, the pending Peabody Peak could be extended to 133.94 (+5.0%). Predicted PFE Level: At the current Dow level of 9,281, the predicted PFE price is 120.60...... Accordingly, PFE is 5.8% overpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends. Da Short-term Gut Feel: PFE has the momentum and will break an all-time high on Friday and possibly the 130 level....But, split or no split (the equivalent of two $5 for one $10), profit-taking will begin and bring PFE lower to new buying opportunities....Long-term...still no problema! Suggested PFE Buying Range: $109 to $118 (1/29/99) ________________________________________________ The Peabody Portfolio Stats: # PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 29 % of purchases in the black: 100% # PFE shares purchased: 4,500 Average PFE purchase price: $63.24 Annualized return: 90.5% Current return: 92.8% # PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 2 % of purchases in the black: 100% # PFE shares purchased: 200 Average PFE purchase price: $113.63 Annualized return: 270.6% Current return: 12.3% Click here for the last comprehensive Peabody Report (1/10/99) and its scary short-term forecast: Peabody Short-Term PForecast (1/10/99): PFE: 122.25, DJ: 9,643: This could be an important week for PFE depending on the issuing of the 4th quarter earning report....Since it is a year end close, the report could issued anytime from Wednesday to Monday. Be very alert!!!! Any PFE strong move down will be a buying opportunity. Gut feel: Celebrex expenses may temper 4th Qt EPS and earnings from global Viagra sales. However, in the tradition of Joe Namath, a PFE split announcement is guaranteed later this month with a 75% probability of a historic 3 -1. Accordingly, positive vibes, momentum and a continuing positive market will bring PFE over the 130 level during January. www3.techstocks.com ______________________________________________________ Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 1/28/99 Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90. The columns include the following data: - PFE prices - % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak - # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak - # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak - predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model - difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price . ___________________________________________________ ................................................................................ Predicted .........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff ...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/ Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual 1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5% 2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0% 3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7% 4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3% 5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9% 6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2% 7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4% 8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2% 9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4% 10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7% 11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4% 12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5% 13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2% 14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1% 15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1% 16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2% 17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1% 18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9% 19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7% 20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1% 21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8% 22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6% 23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7% 24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1% 25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9% 26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9% 27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8% 28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0% 29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7% 30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7% 31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0% 32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7% 33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9% 34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6% 35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1% 36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6% 37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8% 38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9% 39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4% 40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1% 41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8% 42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1% 43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5% 44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6% 45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6% 46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0% 47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4% 48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9% 49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1% 50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0% 51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6% 52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3% 53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5% 54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6% 55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8% 56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2% 57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4% 58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0% 59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2% 60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6% 61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5% 62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6% 63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4% 64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7% 65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9% 66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7% 67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7% 68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6% 69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6% 70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8% 71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1% 72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........-0.3% 73....Peak....1/27/99 ... 127.94.......+16.8%......16...2..... ........Pending ______________________________________________ Average..Peak (1999) N=1..............+16.8%.....16.............2 Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3 Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7 Average..Peak (90-99) N=37...........+28.1%.....64 ............4 Average..Valley (1999) N= 1 ......... -15.0%......12 .............4 Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3 Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2 Average..Valley (90-99) N=36 .........-14.4%.....30 .............6