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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: drsvelte who wrote (6919)	1/28/1999 8:38:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Doc, FLC has been a laggard for sometimes now. To get the biggest bang percentage-wise at the beginning of each reversal, I would go with RIG, then NE, then DO, RON and WFT. FLC, SDC, NBR, GLM move later. ATW tends to be a sleeper. It typically lags behind the rest and then suddenly wakes up to play catchup. The land drillers don't move at all except when things are down <GG>. However, if Uncle Sam is serious about rescuing the domestic oil industry by granting tax incentives, the land drillers may rally a bit. I'm a bit nervous about chasing the techs. Afterall it is just a handful of big techs that are rallying. VTSS is near its all time high again and if the tech needs a pause tomorrow, it may again sell off to $46-47. Will do a buy stop when it gets there next time, if it gets there... With the drillers, one can short or long them and if one is wrong, one has the luxury of waiting a few more weeks for events to readjust itself. One has to be very patient in this group. Anyone who refuses to believe drillers and OSX can go down further only has themselves to kid. The trick is to simply accept that this group is invested by the same people all along. The WAY these people make money in this group is to trade in and out and not bet on a single direction all the time. Therefore, I think using IRA account to invest in this group is very risky. The proof is all in the chart. One can pull out a one year chart or a two year chart and see the unending cycles of up's and down's. This happens even in the bullrun days during the summers of 1997. There are simply too many big and little factors that drive this group on a daily to weekly basis. It is really quite impossible to follow all these events and be able to make a rational basis to go long or short. The easier way, I found, is to follow a mix of TA and sentiment. Say it another way, mo-mo is the way to go for this group. I'm keeping an eye on RIG tomorrow on the long side. If they reverse my NE buy stop will trigger and I may even pick up NE on the long side. However, the bottom for this cycle is not in yet. A higher high close tomorrow would be an indication. OSX is only 4 pts from its low so this thing can go a bit lower still. A successful retest would be very positive especially if oil makes its move to $13 near term.