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Technology Stocks : JMAR Technologies(JMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David E. Meyer who wrote (7325)	1/29/1999 12:47:00 PM
From: Dave Lippert	Respond to of 9695

I just listened to the 3Q conference call tape again (for about the 3rd time). Since I did this while driving to work I was unable to take notes and this is from memory, but I believe it is fairly accurate. But don't rely on this, get the tape yourself. I've added some of my opinions as well. In the 3Q, JMAR received $23M in new orders compared to $21M in revenue for all of '97. Revenues in the 2nd half of '98 will be substantially more than in the 1st half of the year. Since revenue in the 1st half was about 10.3M and the 3rd Qtr 5.8M, I'm guessing that means 4th Qtr revenue will be at least $6M, but probably more. JPS revenue, which made up about 75-80% of 3Q revenue, will only be around 40% of 4Q revenue primarily due to increased JSI and DARPA revenue. At this point there was some confusion as to what was included in 3Q JPS revenues, so don't take the above figures as exact. Revenue for '99 should be in the 30-40M range. No estimate for profits. JPS has been developing new products over the last few years. Some of these are now coming to fruition and in the next 6-12 months they should more than double the size of the markets for JPS. Currently, the markets for JPS (primarily disk drive and semiconductor manufacturers) are about $110M annually and JPS has a 20% share of this market. No projection on what share of the expanded market JMAR will have. JSI is expected to get follow-up contracts during '99 of up to $10M in addition to the $6M in orders recently announced. These contracts were really the first phase of larger programs, which is why JMAR feels fairly confident that the additional $10M of orders during ‘99 will be forthcoming. The $6M will probably be booked within the first 9 months of '99. They project that JSI could have continuing business from the government of about $10M/year. Britelight revenue is expected to be $3-5M in 1999 and potentially triple that in 2000. There is a 3-6 month lead time in the development of individual Britelights, which must be customized to meet each customer's applications. Several are in the hands of customers now and being tested. Approximately $5-6M of DARPA revenue will be realized in '98 ($2M had already been spent when the contract was announced) and probably $6M will be booked in '99. This is on a cost plus basis with a margin of around 35% and is billed every 15 days. During '99, JMAR expects to build a full power prototype and to sell its first PXS systems. This is potentially a multi-billion dollar market. The markets for each of the 3 emerging areas, JSI, Britelight, and X-ray litho, are all larger than the current market for JPS. JMAR thinks the size of its overall markets may expand by 20 fold in the next few years. IMO, there has never been a better time to own JMAR, nor has it ever been so undervalued. The stock price is somewhat disappointing, but it will eventually reach a much higher level when all these orders flow through to the bottom line. There is the standard disclaimer on the tape re future projections, and you can take some of these projections with a grain of salt if you want to. But the orders are REAL orders that will be converted into revenue (mostly during '99), this is NOT just pie-in-the-sky stuff.