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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: VLAD who wrote (18296)	1/28/1999 10:28:00 PM
From: Mkilloran	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Vlad...a few thoughts after listening to the whole conf call (American Offline "AOL" dropped out half way thru the live call, $%%$) ASTRA has done a great job in Sweden and the UK with 34% and 37% of the ED marketplace selling in the same market with Viagra Astra is just starting to launch MUSE with the PCP, they have concentrated with the ED specialist todate. Janssen has 55% of the market in Canada and the market has doubled in size since Muse was launched. Now Vigra is not offically available in Canada at this time (may take another 6 months) and many Canadians can just cross the US boarder to buy Viagra...so I think they are ontrack to do as well as Astra is doing in Sweden and the UK. The delays in licence approvals in Europe IMO is waiting on the 6 week study period that is inprogress in the UK. With the NHS looking for feadback on it's guidelines for ED treatment ..ie how to treat ED patients on the public vrs private health plans. Let the debate take place in the UK before the other countries try the same process. L Wilson said that milestone payments are expected later in the 1st and 2nd qtr....it's not all or nothing...$2million each as Italy, France, Germany and Spain licence MUSE. Cost controls put inplace by the CFO have made the big difference. It is very incouraging that the CFO has transitioned from contract status to being a Vivus employee. He sees that this company has potential. 24 pat approved and 11 pat pending. Alibra in FDA phase iii with 80% enrollment Published works on Gene Therapy and continued work at Albert Einstein Medical Center Vivus beat the Wall Street EST for this qtr and I think L Wilson is painting a worst case picture for the next 2 qtrs so he does not disapoint Wall Street again. Partner negotiations with multiple pharm firms and ASTRA/ZENECA in final merger process....I think we'll see a partner in 2nd qtr..IMO US pharmacies have depleated their inventories of MUSE so I think we can see larger USA domestic earnings from sales in qtr 1 and qtr 2. to offset some of the delays in Europe. The unknown is will Astra and Jannsen quickly replicate their sales progress in the 3 countries (Sweden, UK and Canada) to the other 20 countries that are already licenced.....they have proven they can be effective in these initial 3 countries.... If they do then we have a better 1st and 2nd qtr picture than L Wilson painted in the conf call IMO It's in Astra and Janssen's power to deliver these results. And there is more room for cost reduction as volume increases at the factory.