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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (6931)	1/28/1999 11:04:00 PM
From: Copeland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

My fondest memory was a CNBC floor broker describing how two of his clients just wanted to dump everything they had. As the old adage goes, buy when they hate it; sell when they love it. Pity it doesn't help all that much with precise market timing, however.

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (6931)	1/28/1999 11:16:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

I think an important factor regarding any future crash is that it won't be an overnight situation. Even the Japanese market crash in 1990 took about the entire 1st quarter to make the initial drop of 30+% if my memory serves me. It went down hard and fast but it didn't drop 30% in a day. I think that's a distinction that gets over looked by LT. LT, I believe you should outline your systemic breakdown scenario. Simply saying watch the bond market isn't enough, IMO as you should detail your hypothesis. What market jarring situation is going to occur? Many of us believe that a correction is due and could happen at any time in the near future. I still don't see the total meltdown as a strong possibility. I'm open to all opinions, especially those who can back their's up with reason. Michael

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (6931)	1/28/1999 11:32:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 14427

EXCELLENT piece. That basically sums up my thinking. In fact, I have written an article for the UT faculty saying almost the same thing. who wrote that? I think they've been in my office (G) as for the question of "what about the liquidity" liquidity is a funny thing, it can dry up in a heartbeat. When and "IF" (I emphasize) the bond mkt begins crashing tomorrow as I suspect it will. The liquidity will be soaked up in bonds as investors panic out of stocks and buy the bonds that others are selling. Then you also have to deleverage. Margin debt is currently 1.9% of GDP, the highest it has been since it hit 1.8% in July of 1998. The previous peak was .9% in 1987. You get the picture? Then throw in leveraged players like LTCM which were heavily into derivatives and the bond mkt (that's where the most leverage is). We're talkin MELTDOWN. once the stuff starts hitting the fan, on-line kiddies aren't gettin quotes, let alone orders thru. Many brokerage firms may have their phones seize up. No doubt we will hit trading halts, but the panic probably won't hit till next week. I'm warning all who read this board... move all cash to short term treasury money mkt funds... sell ALL longs and get short if you can. Tomorrow morning could start off innocent enough, but things should get a little silly by the close or at the very least by next week. Ya gotta give me a little leeway on the timing of a major financial event (G) good luck (and let's hope I'm wrong?) -Lucretius