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To: The Ox who wrote (6937)	1/29/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

yes, but i have not called TOP. I did that when the DOW topped. the bond mkt will crash because of the strong GDP numbers (because people used to sell bonds when the economy strengthens because they feared inflation) It is importnat to see that this will only be the catalyst and not the cause just as in 1929, the raising of margin requirments was the catalyst for the crash but the cause was selling by the British that had been going on for the previous 4 months. In the case of our bond mkt, the Japanese have been liquidating bond positions so there is a huge overhang on the mkt. All we need is a match to light the gasoline. I'm "guessing" that the GDP report will do it. Maybe bonds tank next week, but it appears to me that we hit an apex today in the stock mkt which would coincide with a soon to crash bond mkt. everybody thinks they can wait until the last minute to exit. I think alot of people will be shocked when stocks open down Mon and just keep going. liquidity is a funny thing, the way it can dry up w/ a snap of the fingers.