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Non-Tech : PERFUMANIA.COM . . PRFM . . .FOR LONGS ONLY -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ralph Cosenza who wrote (620)	1/29/1999 1:50:00 AM
From: justaninvestor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2489

Ralph, I'll take the bait - I thought Trader J's post summed it up perfectly. Read it again and then one more time. If you don't agree with it, fair enough, but there hardly seems to be any point in trying to make sense of these istocks. Go along for the ride or move along. Good luck with whatever you decide. I cannot speak for everyone here, but as for myself and my thread, we are traders first and foremost....investors last. Investments have a right and defined place in anyone's portfolio just as I believe a trading position does as well. This isn't about valuation and never has been. Look at any of the big Inets, especially Amazon. They lose $2-$4 per book shipped out and they typically have the same view as all other fledgling startups especially in the internet: "Sure we are losing $2-$4 per book but we expect to make it up in volume". This inet movement again, has never been about compelling valuation. It is about a new frontier, a new method of stock transacting (Internet) and hype....pure and simple. Half of the time I trade a stock, I don't even know what the full name of the company is. Some see this as a "bad for the industry" but to not take advantage of current market condtions is to not eat food on the table when you are starving .... it just doesn't make sense. I don't pretend to understand the outrageous valuations (and I use the term loosely) with most of the Inets, but I long ago stopped trying to figure it out and instead, started looking at what moved them, both up and down. What moves them up: Hype, expectation and mostly...and unfolding story. What causes them to drop: An end to the mystery and mystique. Buy the rumor, sell the news trading....plain and simple. The fall of DBCC and BAMM are classic but you only are speaking about the fall....how about being in on the way up, like BAMM at 5 or DBCC at 5.... how about SKYM, or ONSL, GCTY, CMGI, BCST, ... the list goes on. You must learn the difference between trading and investing and get out of the valuation loop. I know it is tough, I have been there and still shake my head when it happens like today with PRFM. There are things that can be done to limit risk. I normally, now, do not trade issues with lots over 3000 shares unless there is a compelling story....this limits loss and still leaves plenty of upside. Cut your losses if it turns and look for the next play. Remember, traders .... not investors. Investors care about 5 yr. EPS, growth and good multiples. Traders care about hype and volume. See it for what it is..... yet another great opportunity. And the way it is unfolding along with the timing .... it leads right into the next great opportunity, NAVR. Don't miss it. Luck to you".

To: Ralph Cosenza who wrote (620)	1/29/1999 2:00:00 AM
From: Maarten Z	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2489

Ralph here is an explanation THis was written by Rande who has researched this company in depth. I copied it from one of his posts if you have not come across it yet. I hope he will not mind. " Perfumania (PRFM) is the nation's largest fragrance retailer with 290 stores. Now they are going online. Initial deals signed with Amazon, Microsoft, Yahoo and E-trade. Perfumania will become a ''truly global'' Internet marketer of perfumes since it has the solution to the problem of the international consumer having to pay customs and shipping to their country. The Company's affiliate already distributes fragrances and related products through representatives in more than 80 countries. Perfumania.com intends to offer the lowest prices available for the more than 2,000 different products it will initially offer. Those products will include all major fragrances, from Giorgio Armani, Cartier, Fendi, Ralph Lauren, Gucci and Versace to Tommy Hilfiger and Cool Water. The offerings also will include the Company's own manufactured bath and body brands including Nature's Elements Skin Care, NE Sport and Jerome Privee. It is easy to get excited about PRFM... Facts: 4.5 million customers contributing to $180 million annual sales 15 million visitors/year to 290 bricks and mortar stores $3.96 book value as of Dec. 15, 1998 6.5mil outstanding shares and 1.9 million in the public float Recently hired KCSA [big Wall Street PR firm, which has dramatically increased the number of releases]. They are establishing internet hubs in nations around the world. Already they have registered at least a dozen .com names for countries including Mexico, Japan and the United Kingdom. Recently signed a distribution deal for Canada which includes Canadian internet sales. It is easy to get excited about PRFM knowing that it is the LEADING RETAILER of fragrances in America. Investors believe we will use the internet to buy books [AMZN, BAMM], music [CDNW, NTKI], clothes [BFLY, DLIA, SPGLA], computer hardware and software [EGGS, MALL], tickets [TMCS] . . . . Specializing in the sale of fragrances at discounted prices up to 70 percent below the manufacturer's suggested retail prices. And those that sell at a discount will obviously do better than those at full retail. According to the front page of Perfumania.com, the company will also be offering FREE SHIPPING anywhere in the United States. That is another big obstacle overcome by Perfumania, IMO. Nobody likes to add on 10, 20 or 30 percent of the cost of an item for shipping. I expect momentum to build... Some things just lend themselves well to being discounted and sold over the internet. In my opinion, Fragrances are one of them, because most people already know the fragrances they prefer. Perfumania can, of course send out samples of new scents with orders. Shoes would be an example of something nearly impossible to sell via the internet, unless it was a name like Florsheim, where you trusted the sizing as well as the quality. While the company has seen recent financial challenges, it is my opinion that the management has taken this bull by the horns in focusing their efforts on internet sales. With established warehousing, pickers, packers, customer service, managers, shipping, receiving, receivables and payables, the company is a long way toward establishing its internet presence. I expect momentum to build as KCSA could issue separate press releases covering their ad deal with Yahoo. . . . then their internet presence in Spanish speaking countries. . . .their ad deal with Amazon . . . .their internet hub in Japan . . . their ad deal with Etrade. . . . some new appointments to their internet division. . . . the completion of their warehouse facilities and operations for the new internet division. . . .their ad deal with Microsoft Network. . . .some new deals? . . . some more new foreign hubs and foreign distributors. . . the launch of the new website.. . traffic reports on the new site. . . . initial sales reports from the new site. . . . .tally of Valentines sales figures. . . .top line revenue increases due to the addition of the internet site. . . .and finally bottom line improvement. More thoughts on this and other subjects Anyone trying to play PRFM as a short seller should consider the sheer volume of news releases that KCSA has ready to issue, then cover their positions and get some sleep at night. I bought BAMM at 2.70, then tried to get others on Silicon Investor to notice it. Many jumped in, in the teens and thought they were brilliant when they sold in the high 30's. I sold at 45 dollars and still kept some free shares long. I intend on doing the same with PRFM. I bought from 2.50 up to 6 dollars and pending another e-commerce boom week, I fully expect to some similar moves as the story unfolds. " As you can see the story is indeed unfolding. This is a momemtum play. Today showed increased volume, good upward trend, and little selling pressure. Few daytraders are playing this. Tomorrow they will. Low float,more daytraders,more volume and Tomorrow's activity will set off alarms all over. If the press releases are timed right by Monday morning we should see a significant gap up. Who knows how long this may continue. I will be very alert on Monday. But until then all signs say this is going up quickly. But do your own DD. Good Luck Maarten

To: Ralph Cosenza who wrote (620)	1/29/1999 2:24:00 AM
From: 007	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2489

Most people are in this stock on the hype and hysteria, and they will bail out quickly, but there is a very good fundamental reason for this stock to soar. Look at the fundamentals and you see a company losing money. But the market looks ahead and tries to value companies for what they are becoming, not what they are or were. Perfumania is putting a plan together to become the dominant seller of perfumes on the internet. The internet is growing at an incredibly fast rate and will rapidly become the world's shopping mall. If Perfumania succeeds in becoming the dominant etailer of perfumes in the world, it will have a very long and bright future. The traders who are making quick money on this runup may eventually wish they hadn't sold. Perfumania is not an Amazon. The perfume business is one of high margins. The average person does not buy their perfume at a discount yet. Compare that to Amazon. Throughout the world, people use the same exact perfumes. Compare that to Amazon. Perfumania will make money on every bottle of perfume they sell. Compare that to Amazon. People assume that this company is not going to make money, because it isn't making money now, and because other etailers aren't making money. These assumptions may be correct, but they may be false, very false. What is the present value of the future earnings that are likely to flow to the company that becomes the global retailer of fragrances on the internet? I don't know, but it may be worth a lot more than we realize. 007 Long since $3-4.