To: HRP who wrote (6896 ) 1/29/1999 10:49:00 AM From: Cogito Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10072
>>Clearly, there are many positive things that can be said about Iomega. Few appear to be willing to post the negative things when the reward is personal attacks instead of discussion of the issues.<< HRP - I think from the reaction to this post you can see that this thread does not automatically resort to name calling just because a person is not wildly bullish on Iomega. Your post was polite and reasonable. All the responses to your post, at least so far, have been likewise; completely adult and without personal malice toward you. I believe that the very negative reactions many of our bears get stems from the fact that they often tend to be condescending and insulting toward the longs. It doesn't surprise me that people don't like posts saying, basically, "Boy, you people are such idiots. Nobody but a moron could fail to see that ..." I also see that many times people here have overreacted to bearish posters, too. I'd like to respond to part of the substance of what you said. >>A year ago IOM dropped from $13 to $8 overnight following a bad earnings report. Management cited as the primary cause the sudden unexpected increase in OEM inclusion of Zip drives to 50%.<< While higher OEM inclusion may have been a factor in last year's sudden price drop, I think Kim Edwards' announcement that the company was going to increase its advertising spending by one hundred million dollars had more to do with it. Also, as you may recall, it wasn't just that the OEM percentage was up in Q4 1997, it was also stated in the conference call that retail sales were below expectations. This year, while OEM percentages are higher, there was no expressed disappointment in retail sales. Also, it has been clear in each quarterly call this year that building OEM sales and cutting costs was a primary goal. Yes, there may still be those who don't see how the company can make money when they sell their product for less, but the entire computer industry works that way. I, too, am somewhat surprised at the staying power of the Superdrive, and its success in getting new OEM deals. I have to wonder how meaningful all those deals really are, though, since its a lot easier to find a computer with Zip than Superdrive. But certainly it is a valid point that people who own a Superdrive are less likely to be people who will buy a Zip drive. Thus, increasing Superdrive sales aren't good for Iomega. But the low-end removables market is still growing, and Iomega still owns more than 85% of it. I doubt that there will ever be a time when one can say that Iomega investors face no risks going forward. Right now, I feel comfortable enough with the risk to potential reward ratio. - Allen