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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (44916)	1/29/1999 9:53:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 132070

Chris, most people won't know the top is in until after the fact but some signs to look for high volume with little upside progress- this is distribution eager buyers met with eager sellers. The sellers are usually smarter. Narrow advance- A/D line, NH/NL . I was shocked by the magnitude of recovery after AG's 3 rate cuts. I do not expect the next round to be as effective and at some point the dollar and bond mkt will pay the price. One major problem I have in forecasting is AG has not been prudent IMO ( check the speculation before it gets out of control) . To date he has fanned the fires of speculation so at this point it seems reasonable to expect more of the same on the other hand maybe he sees the error of his ways but we will not know until we see the response after the next decline. How to profit? deep out of the money puts but only with risk capital that you can afford to lose entirely-no telling how long a mania lasts but the risk reward is in favor of the bears once the market loses momentum. I have a horrible forecasting record but we should top soon. My guess is puts later than May should work. This is what AG had to say about Fed policy during the 20's -history repeats fame.org mike