To: ahhaha who wrote (4905 ) 1/30/1999 9:00:00 AM From: ahhaha Respond to of 29970
So you think we haven't discussed DSL here? This is only one little segment of many intricate arguments about it: To: George T. Santamaria (1543 ) From: ahhaha Thursday, Mar 5 1998 2:36AM ET Reply # of 4915 In 5 years the standard cable speed will 100 - 300 mbps. That's nowhere near any theoretical limit. Quantum packeting should hike that up to 10 pbps in 20 years, but the cables will be hollow vacuum filled sheaths of superconducting eutectic. To: ahhaha (1547 ) From: jeffrey bash Thursday, Mar 5 1998 12:16PM ET Reply # of 4915 I am still left with the key question. Name one broad current or potential consumer application that would require speeds that can be supplied by cable but not by phone. Is Video On Demand one? If one can be named then I will be more interested. Otherwise, I draw the following conclusion: When speedy phone service becomes available, AOL will shoot up and ATHM will drop. The Street's PERCEPTION will be that only tekkie's will have any need for cable. I myself switched to @HOME from awful AOL, but would consider switching back if I was convinced of comparable speed - leaving @HOME with an expensive second hand modem a year old. To: jeffrey bash (1548 ) From: Altec Thursday, Mar 5 1998 5:19PM ET Reply # of 4915 Here are a few applications that DSL will never be able to genuinely deliver on that cable can: . Video on demand . CD-quality audio . Online gaming (real stuff, not the joke stuff today on the 'net) . Video conferencing . Good quality IP telephony . Software distribution . Telecommuting . "Rentable" (over the net) software applications and CD-ROM games . PPV live events These are just the things we can conceive of today. xDSL is on it's last legs before it is even deployed. Cable wins because of it's huge bandwidth advantage. To: Altec (1556 ) From: dave horne Thursday, Mar 5 1998 6:51PM ET Reply # of 4915 stop NOW (to use your words). ADSL can deliver on any current service which doesn't require a multi-megabit upstream data rate. In fact, ADSL can deliver on some of the items in your list better that point-to-multipoint HFC. VOD is a perfect example. VOD is a pull-mode service. Pull mode services are by definition a point-to-point connection. For one-to-many downstream (HFC), each user of VOD burns DEDICATED bandwidth. 1 user of a 4MBPS MPEG2 compressed movie burns that bandwidth (plus overhead). N users burn N times that bandwidth. nVOD is different (doesn't require a dedicated P2P connection). Most of the other apps you list are minimal bandwidth. VC can have huge variations in bandwidth depending on how it's implemented, but either delivery method is capable of supporting some reasonable level of VC. In summary, everything in your list can be delivered via a T1.413 ADSL implementation. P.S. I don't favor one over the other (in fact, I will probably get the @home service and actually do have the option of getting ADSL ), but let's not hype things too far out of proportion. My choice is strictly based on price of the services. dh To: ZARAH (1786 ) From: dave horne Thursday, Apr 23 1998 8:30PM ET Reply # of 4915 I've had my @HOME service for about a week (they called me, and the install was less than a week later). I still have my ISP account, and it's on a second computer, so I can compare apples to apples, side by side. The ISP I am using is ON MCI's backbone, with 2 router hops at the ISP's facility between me and the MCI backbone. The good news: I've downloaded MANY large files--side by side--on several different days and several different times. For a 2Mbyte file: @HOME's network average 23 seconds, ISP average 17 minutes. If I download the SAME file again via @HOME's network, it takes about 3 seconds (that's right, 3 seconds) because it is in the cache so there is no backbone access--all on the inTRAnet. CLEARLY superior for the large file download application. Now for the not so good news: I won't go into much detail because many here don't want to hear this, but on average, for web page loads, only a very slight edge to @HOME. In some cases, the ISP connection actually brings the page up much faster (like 2 seconds versus 15 seconds). This happens about 1 out of every 20 page accesses in the side by side test (even to the same host this happens). In most cases, it's roughly 1 second for @HOME versus 3 seconds for the ISP connection to retrieve the same page. There are also cases with a big edge to @HOME, but the moral of the story is that the client side modem is not, on average, the weak link for my connection (unless you spend the majority of your connect time downloading very large files). Both networks eventually meet at the same NAP, so both netowrks go through the same funnel together. Note, however (and this is very important) that the ISP I use is ON the MCI backbone. If you are only able to use an ISP that is several tiers back (meaning your ISP leases from another ISP who in turn leases from another,...)then I am SURE the bottleneck would be more client modem related. dh To: ahhaha (1793 ) From: dave horne Friday, Apr 24 1998 1:10AM ET Reply # of 4915 A funny ADSL story: I also looked into getting ADSL service from US WEST, and was told that my line won't support the service. The reason this is funny is that my house in less than 2 years old, in a neighborhood of about the same age, and hardly out in the boonies. Kind of makes you wonder how true the statements of ADSL (at least in sub-megabit form, which is all I was looking at) availability to 80-some percent of current services is. I'm located in a fairly populated area with fairly new infrastructure--if they can't serve this, I think they've got serious troubles meeting their claims.