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To: J. P. who wrote (42572)	1/29/1999 2:02:00 PM
From: Land_Lubber	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

> And don't underestimate the impact of channel stuffing by boxmakers on demand in the first quarter 1999. Hint: CPQ receivables up in their last statement. If receivables are up it would indicate the OPPOSITE of channel stuffing, would it not? That is that they are SELLING computers faster than before and all the payments from the credit card and finance companies have not yet been received. Land_Lubber

To: J. P. who wrote (42572)	1/29/1999 2:28:00 PM
From: John Graybill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

I'm with you, dude! My horizon is weekly and monthly -- I try to make my last trade before any option expiration a call that expires worthless. The closer that is to the closing price of the stock, the better. In the meantime, we have all seen that there's usually a 10% round trip one way or another and a couple round trips of a couple of points, and I try to play them as well. None of that day-trading crap for me. I use the time-of-day stuff for entry and exit of option positions, although you would have made some nice money made this week by buying at 10:30, no matter what your time-frame is. Yep, after the tout-fests, look out below. Even though there is a tout-fest the week of option expiration, I'm expecting that it will be a big dump week. Call buyers have done too well for too many months in a row, and this month is the first one in a while that we have not had a straight-up, month-long run. My conclusion is that there won't be as many profitable calls being sold back to the market-makers to be exercised.

To: J. P. who wrote (42572)	1/30/1999 2:59:00 PM
From: Land_Lubber	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

I just noticed something interesting. The last major market correction that started mid-July 1998 began when: - DJIA was trying to break 9400 for the first time - NASDAQ composite tried to hold 2000 for the first time Now: - DJIA is trying to break and hold 9400 AGAIN (a small correction ensued in late November 1998, also when the DJIA was assaulting 9400) - NASDAQ composite is trying to hold 2500 for the first time (NASDAQ sell programs seem to be triggered by these numbers, a two-day pullback of 100 points was also triggered then 2400 was touched for the first time) One major difference between mid-July and now is that the NASDAQ and DJIA charts showed no technical weakness at all when the correction hit out of the blue back then, now they look dizzy from too fast a climb and seem to be almost begging to be allowed to drop. Comments? Land_Lubber