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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (27917)	1/29/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Tito, Looking at the upcycle in 1997 AMAT did not hit $63-64 until May running up from an absolute DW low of $22. However, looking at the DW chart from the middle of January the high was $49 and appeared to be in a trading range (DW$49-$41) until the middle of February. Then it moved up to $54 with a trading range ($54-44) until the last of April. The last of April it broke out to $64 and stairstepped its way to a high of $72 until falling back to $58 before making its final accent to the $87 and up to its absolute of $108 in Aug. 1998. As you and I agree we are approx. 2 months ahead of the 1996-'97 upcycle regarding price in today's term. The problem trying to time the above swings of AMAT is it 'ziggs when you expect it to zagg" as we all know.<g> AMAT has almost been following a stepladder approach this cycle. We could, and I reinforce could, have a trading range after earning comes out in Feb. This can be supported when considering Gottfried's charts of the equilibrum reached by the SEMI's Orders with the Shipments for a couple of months in 1997 followed by the Orders exceeding the shipment. AMAt's prices jumped after the orders exceeded the shipment. I expect the same to happen again. IMO, the SEMI Orders, shipment and BTB #'s are the key to the SEMI prices. Just my opinions. John L and Big Bucks, probably give us their opinions. Paul PS Threaders, I may be off the line for a few days. My hard drive appears to be in a crashing mode and I have to get it repaired under warranty.