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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (4928)	1/29/1999 6:05:00 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Respond to of 99985

Yes, this memory thing is aggravating!!! <G> I thought I remembered the 3 components until I started writing them down! See, that baby-boomer thing taking effect<G> Drug stocks, anyone????

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (4928)	1/29/1999 6:11:00 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

dmp, how funny! Just found this . . . exchange2000.com

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (4928)	1/29/1999 6:59:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ----------------------------------- Per my short-term technicals, most of the indexes are in the overbought region, with the NAZ,NDX,DOT,IIX,XCI,SPX,OEX,DRG as CLASS 1 SELLS with the buy-in day as MONDAY's highs(the NAZ,NDX,DRG were borderline CLASS 1's yesterday with the buy-in at todays highs). The DOW,BKX,XAL,BKX are only in the overbought region and not yet a CLASS SELL, but are only a day or 2 away. I have mentioned the pennant previously, which I believe was pierced to the upside, but not significantly enough to negate it totally. One could argue that it was negated, but on the other hand one could say the upper trendline of the pennant was moved slightly to the upside which would just change the APEX of the PENNANT slightly. The main descending PITCHFORK is still intact, with its upper trendline around 9500. In light of my short-term technicals in/near the CLASS SELL territory for most of the indexes, I feel that the PITCHFORK will hold. The DOW can still pop to the upside on MON/TUE but 9500 range(upper trendline of PITCHFORK) will be a very tough resistance for this cycle. I also have heard of the TITANIC indicator, but cant recall the details. Regardless the market internals are weak. The A/D was slightly positive, and with a day that the market was up strong, the A/D should have been stronger. What I feel is a strong negative is the NEW HIGHs getting larger, in spite of a strong up day for the market. We also have to keep in mind of the end-of-month rally/window dressing. I wonder if it was intentional to close JAN on a positive note as much as possible, in light of the "JANUARY EFFECT" - just my cynical nature to mention that - sorry. The NAZ,SPX,OEX set new highs today which is a positive for the market which implies higher highs, but the DOW is lagging. So the question is will the DOW drag them down or will they pull the DOW up. Since the market internals were weak,impling that this rally was not broadbased, Im more inclined that the DOW will do the dragging. Speaking of this rally not being broadbased the RUT was also lagging the NAZ/SPX/OEX. No, Im not saying the big kahuna, but do see this pullback materializing. Per my earlier update, my cycle analysis, which is still in test stages are indicating the bottom of this pullback to arrive around FEB 10, then a bounce upwards. Depending on how strong this pullback is, such will give a clue if the DESCENDING PITCHFORK will contain the following rebound. Just from eyeballing it, it appears that by the middle of FEB the UPPER TINE of the DESCENDING PITCHFORK will be near 9400. It appears to be declining about 100 DOW points every 2 weeks or so. I initiiated a small PUT position today and will add to it if we pop up more on MON/TUE. Have a nice weekend. seeya