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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (4308)	1/30/1999 9:56:00 AM
From: david james	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4634

I don't want to get into a pissing match, but I would enjoy listening to the logic of taking a short position on ABTE. I have no problem with shorting over-valued stocks, but simply from a technical perspective, Able seems a poor choice. Jan 15 short interest shows 2.8 mill shares short, with under 11 mill shares outstanding. Institutions have been adding to their positions, with Fidelity Select Telecommunications purchasing 1 mill shares (9%) and other major institutions making significant increases. Message 7214321 Message 7236383 Two analysts have a strong buy and Kaufman Brothers probably has enough clients to purchase at least 2-3 mill shares. On Friday they increased their target to $26 and their long term target to $50. Message 7565480 Even if everything that Asensio says about ABTE is true, the instituons and Kaufman's clients have enough clout to put a squeeze on those 2.8 mill shorts. It doesn't really matter whether you believe Kaufman or not. The float is small enough for them to move the stock up and there are not enough shares left to short to produce much more damage. I think its fairly clear from the call and put volume as to which way people are betting. The squeeze appears unavoidable. I don't think there is any question that earnings and revenues will show an increase next week (with $400 to $500 mill in revs expected in 99). It also appears that Able is retiring their convertible debentures which was a significant problem as the stock was falling. However, I think the fundamentals are fairly irrelevant right now. At least for the next few weeks. As you can probably guess, I am long ABTE, but I bought at 5 so I have no ill will towards Asensio. I think all that short interest is wonderful. I just wonder when they are going to buy those shares, if we decide we don't want to sell. David