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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Satch77 who wrote (36287)	1/30/1999 1:08:00 AM
From: Fredman	Respond to of 95453

No, to me a 'Bottom' is a number i feel safe to buy in at, but to others it might be its' 52 week low, and yes, i realize that is a relative term. But don't we see a 'bottom' every 4 weeks ?? I guess it depends on your interpretation of 'the bottom' and how you plan around it...... If we have an Oil that was $45.00, and for the past week it's bounced between 10 and 12.00, is 12 a sufficient bottom, or do you 'wait' for 10 ??? (this is assuming you KNOW its' going to get to 10...... it might or it might not. To me there isn't a whole lot of difference between 10 and 12 WHEN you are at a 'called bottom' of 12, then a week later it goes to 13.50, then 3 days later it is 10 or 11......... I already know, so don't even start, nobody understands what i am trying to say: If you are trying to time buys to THE bottom, nobody knows when that is, including me. All we can do is guess, Slider included. (but i WILL say Slider is pretty darned good at picking as close to a 'bottom' as anybody. It isn't HIS fault we keep revisiting a new bottom, he just can't tell us when a turnaround has run out of steam. But who can ?? see the next paragraph:). Me ? I see no reason to buy in yet, because nobody has given any real strong evidence Oil stocks are in a fundamental upward move.... OSX isn't doing much, OPEC ditto, as is Mexico, South America, and the 'heat wave' we are having this winter...... I see NO reason to buy in yet, aside from a lot of Institutional Investors probably know the downside percentage is a lot less than the upside percentage, it just depends on how long you want to tie up your capital investment. It's exactly like this when you SELL a stock. If i bought a stock at 22.00, and i expect a ROI of 50%, do i sell at 33.00 ? or do i hang on past that, knowing it is at its' target sell price, and i might make more, but i might lose some of that 50% I had as a target ? Me ? I sell at 33.00 EVERY time.